Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$1.1K
-$0.14
88.7¢ → 90.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 90¢ | $742.31 | $671.79 | +$3.71 | 50% 21060-21316 (42376) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 86.2¢ | $347.89 | $364.9 | +$17.08 | 51% 25463-24164 (49627) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $51.31 | $48.74 | -$2.57 | 51% 37347-36602 (73949) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 13.3¢ | $478.99 | $45.5 | -$18.19 | 58% 46176-33333 (79509) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $3.51 | $3.33 | -$0.18 | 48% 60543-65164 (125707) |
Invested
$742.31
Value
$671.79
PnL
+$3.71
Record
50%
21060-21316 (42376)
Invested
$347.89
Value
$364.9
PnL
+$17.08
Record
51%
25463-24164 (49627)
Invested
$51.31
Value
$48.74
PnL
-$2.57
Record
51%
37347-36602 (73949)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$478.99
Value
$45.5
PnL
-$18.19
Record
58%
46176-33333 (79509)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$0.18
Record
48%
60543-65164 (125707)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.