Spread: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5)
6 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Sport Lisboa e Benfica (33%) · Sport Lisboa e Benfica at 75¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Sport Lisboa e Benfica
18
Sport Lisboa e Benfica 33%
1 arb excluded
$15.5K
-$78.42
63.8¢ → 75¢
+18% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralSport Lisboa e Benfica at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 18 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | KKS Lech Poznańavg 36.4¢ | $5.2K | $4.1K | $-1.0K | 51% 25751-24453 (50204) |
| └ KKS Lech Poznań leg | KKS Lech Poznańavg 36.4¢ | $3.0K | $2.1K | -$946.72 | |
| └ Sport Lisboa e Benfica leg | Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 77.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$79.71 | |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 62.8¢ | $3.0K | $3.5K | +$525.82 | 42% 7995-11188 (19183) |
JU juice-fruit | Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 62.2¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$109.96 | 58% 57-41 (98) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | KKS Lech Poznańavg 25.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.0K | -$222.79 | 52% 1376-1291 (2667) |
 0xheavy888 | Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 70.7¢ | $835.91 | $869.48 | +$33.57 | 56% 7915-6323 (14238) |
38 38791873984189 | Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 71.3¢ | $889.58 | $631.14 | -$52.85 | 48% 61176-65982 (127158) |
 nigiri99 | Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 62.2¢ | $455.47 | $538.02 | +$82.55 | 46% 8594-10246 (18840) |
HI hi774cCTR | KKS Lech Poznańavg 37¢ | $862 | $489.24 | -$372.76 | 46% 5200-6052 (11252) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | KKS Lech Poznańavg 30.7¢ | $341.63 | $313.69 | -$28.08 | 50% 28428-28335 (56763) |
 RN1CTR | KKS Lech Poznańavg 18.4¢ | $249 | $269.93 | +$20.93 | 53% 61368-53685 (115053) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | KKS Lech Poznańavg 30.2¢ | $193.47 | $160.08 | -$33.39 | 50% 1324-1301 (2625) |
VE VenusianCTR | KKS Lech Poznańavg 30¢ | $125.22 | $116.76 | -$8.46 | 51% 1379-1343 (2722) |
LI LimousinCTR | KKS Lech Poznańavg 29.5¢ | $110.51 | $89.78 | -$20.73 | 53% 1423-1266 (2689) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | KKS Lech Poznańavg 31.7¢ | $78.37 | $69.23 | -$9.14 | 50% 25823-25522 (51345) |
CA CannaeCTR | KKS Lech Poznańavg 34.4¢ | $139.14 | $62.74 | -$76.4 | 53% 16808-14936 (31744) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | KKS Lech Poznańavg 20¢ | $48.57 | $57.21 | +$8.64 | 61% 14366-9289 (23655) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | KKS Lech Poznańavg 35.6¢ | $53.62 | $54.28 | +$0.67 | 51% 6347-6131 (12478) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | KKS Lech Poznańavg 38.3¢ | $68.94 | $29.7 | -$39.24 | 51% 37668-36894 (74562) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Sport Lisboa e Benficaavg 66.3¢ | $57.11 | $22.38 | +$3.3 | 55% 9738-8127 (17865) |
Invested
$5,152.9
Value
$4.1K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
51%
25751-24453 (50204)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,961.51
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$525.82
Record
42%
7995-11188 (19183)
Invested
$2,959.62
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$109.96
Record
58%
57-41 (98)
Invested
$1,272.79
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$222.79
Record
52%
1376-1291 (2667)
0xheavy888Invested
$835.91
Value
$869.48
PnL
+$33.57
Record
56%
7915-6323 (14238)
Invested
$889.58
Value
$631.14
PnL
-$52.85
Record
48%
61176-65982 (127158)
nigiri99Invested
$455.47
Value
$538.02
PnL
+$82.55
Record
46%
8594-10246 (18840)
Invested
$862
Value
$489.24
PnL
-$372.76
Record
46%
5200-6052 (11252)
Invested
$341.63
Value
$313.69
PnL
-$28.08
Record
50%
28428-28335 (56763)
RN1CTRInvested
$249
Value
$269.93
PnL
+$20.93
Record
53%
61368-53685 (115053)
Invested
$193.47
Value
$160.08
PnL
-$33.39
Record
50%
1324-1301 (2625)
Invested
$125.22
Value
$116.76
PnL
-$8.46
Record
51%
1379-1343 (2722)
Invested
$110.51
Value
$89.78
PnL
-$20.73
Record
53%
1423-1266 (2689)
Invested
$78.37
Value
$69.23
PnL
-$9.14
Record
50%
25823-25522 (51345)
Invested
$139.14
Value
$62.74
PnL
-$76.4
Record
53%
16808-14936 (31744)
Invested
$48.57
Value
$57.21
PnL
+$8.64
Record
61%
14366-9289 (23655)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$53.62
Value
$54.28
PnL
+$0.67
Record
51%
6347-6131 (12478)
Invested
$68.94
Value
$29.7
PnL
-$39.24
Record
51%
37668-36894 (74562)
Invested
$57.11
Value
$22.38
PnL
+$3.3
Record
55%
9738-8127 (17865)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ferrariChampions2026
Sport Lisboa e Benfica — $3.5K
juice-fruit
Sport Lisboa e Benfica — $3.1K
LightParadox
CTRKKS Lech Poznań — $1.0K
0xheavy888
Sport Lisboa e Benfica — $869.48
38791873984189
Sport Lisboa e Benfica — $631.14
nigiri99
Sport Lisboa e Benfica — $538.02
hi774c
CTRKKS Lech Poznań — $489.24
GoalLineGhost
CTRKKS Lech Poznań — $313.69
RN1
CTRKKS Lech Poznań — $269.93