RSC Anderlecht vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 4.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 78¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 5

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$0.78

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 78¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares6,016

Combined PnL+$11.84

Over4 traders

Total Value$226.92

Total Shares936

Combined PnL-$11.06

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 76.3¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$6.62	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 75.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$23.35	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 76¢	$674.5	$674.5	+$0	51% 37665-36890 (74555)
XW xwingboy	Underavg 76.9¢	$506	$500	-$6	66% 336-175 (511)
SE sentrio	Underavg 76¢	$213.76	$213.76	+$0	50% 25814-25509 (51323)
0xheavy888	Underavg 75.4¢	$183.35	$184.83	+$1.48	56% 7911-6321 (14232)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 25.8¢	$183.16	$174.21	-$8.96	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 76¢	$118.49	$116.6	-$1.89	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
└ Under leg	Underavg 76¢	$85.88	$89.84	+$3.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 25¢	$32.61	$26.76	-$5.84
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 25.1¢	$27.01	$25.87	-$1.14	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 22.9¢	$18.74	$19.68	+$0.94	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 76¢	$16.4	$16.03	-$0.38	55% 9735-8125 (17860)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 25.9¢	$9.07	$7.17	-$1.9	50% 1322-1299 (2621)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,875.26

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$6.62

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,386.85

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$23.35

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$674.5

Value

$674.5

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

37665-36890 (74555)

xwingboy

Under

Invested

$506

Value

$500

PnL

-$6

Record

66%

336-175 (511)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$213.76

Value

$213.76

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$183.35

Value

$184.83

PnL

+$1.48

Record

56%

7911-6321 (14232)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$183.16

Value

$174.21

PnL

-$8.96

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$118.49

Value

$116.6

PnL

-$1.89

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

Both legs:

Invested

$27.01

Value

$25.87

PnL

-$1.14

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.74

Value

$19.68

PnL

+$0.94

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$16.4

Value

$16.03

PnL

-$0.38

Record

55%

9735-8125 (17860)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.07

Value

$7.17

PnL

-$1.9

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.