Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 1 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will RSC Anderlecht win on 2026-11-05?

1 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (7%) · Yes at 49¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 5

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 7%

Total Value

$44.4K

Combined PnL

-$305.28

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 15 top traders (7%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$26.5K

Total Shares54,574

Combined PnL+$165.52

No14 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares34,915

Combined PnL-$470.8

Yes — 7%No — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 48.2¢	$26.3K	$26.5K	+$165.52	49% 197-201 (398)
VE Venusian	Noavg 53.2¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$140.56	51% 1368-1329 (2697)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 53.2¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$140.35	50% 1309-1291 (2600)
LI Limousin	Noavg 53.2¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$74.86	53% 1408-1254 (2662)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 53.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$64.08	52% 1362-1281 (2643)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 52¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$11.61	51% 25699-24415 (50114)
NM NM-P	Noavg 51.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$0	64% 9920-5524 (15444)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 52¢	$997.49	$978.31	-$19.18	49% 14703-15372 (30075)
GC GC-P	Noavg 51.6¢	$849.91	$848.15	-$1.77	64% 9962-5592 (15554)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 52¢	$663	$650.25	-$6.38	50% 28405-28303 (56708)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 52¢	$260	$255	-$5	58% 46658-33622 (80280)
CA Cannae	Noavg 51.7¢	$216.19	$213.46	-$2.73	53% 16795-14918 (31713)
SE sentrio	Noavg 51¢	$199.44	$201.4	+$1.96	50% 25801-25492 (51293)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 53.2¢	$132	$127.67	-$4.33	50% 21147-21407 (42554)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$58.31	$56.4	-$1.91	51% 6334-6121 (12455)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$26,302.95

Value

$26.5K

PnL

+$165.52

Record

49%

197-201 (398)

Venusian

Invested

$4,281.8

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$140.56

Record

51%

1368-1329 (2697)

MadridTime

Invested

$4,275.28

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$140.35

Record

50%

1309-1291 (2600)

Limousin

Invested

$2,280.48

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$74.86

Record

53%

1408-1254 (2662)

LightParadox

Invested

$1,951.88

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$64.08

Record

52%

1362-1281 (2643)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,242.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$11.61

Record

51%

25699-24415 (50114)

NM-P

Invested

$1,029.97

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

9920-5524 (15444)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$997.49

Value

$978.31

PnL

-$19.18

Record

49%

14703-15372 (30075)

GC-P

Invested

$849.91

Value

$848.15

PnL

-$1.77

Record

64%

9962-5592 (15554)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$663

Value

$650.25

PnL

-$6.38

Record

50%

28405-28303 (56708)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$260

Value

$255

PnL

-$5

Record

58%

46658-33622 (80280)

Cannae

Invested

$216.19

Value

$213.46

PnL

-$2.73

Record

53%

16795-14918 (31713)

sentrio

Invested

$199.44

Value

$201.4

PnL

+$1.96

Record

50%

25801-25492 (51293)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$132

Value

$127.67

PnL

-$4.33

Record

50%

21147-21407 (42554)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$58.31

Value

$56.4

PnL

-$1.91

Record

51%

6334-6121 (12455)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 15 top traders (7%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.