Villarreal CF vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 71¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3

Over71¢Under29¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

-$85.78

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 70.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares9,149

Combined PnL-$121.13

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,160

Combined PnL+$35.35

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 72¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$22.53	50% 27272-27188 (54460)
└ Over leg	Overavg 72¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$67.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 27¢	$609	$654.11	+$45.11
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Overavg 73¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$20	67% 232-114 (346)
ET Ethanael02	Overavg 73¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$91.78	62% 97-59 (156)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 28.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$34.21	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
LI Limousin	Overavg 71¢	$980.99	$973.39	-$7.59	56% 935-734 (1669)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 27¢	$117.47	$126.18	+$2.18	53% 16379-14547 (30926)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 30¢	$120	$118	-$2	51% 1717-1639 (3356)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 72¢	$166.41	$88.68	+$3.18	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
└ Over leg	Overavg 72¢	$61.38	$59.68	-$1.71
└ Under leg	Underavg 27¢	$27	$29	+$4.89
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 72¢	$41.09	$39.95	-$1.14	64% 1845-1027 (2872)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 72¢	$28.98	$28.37	-$0.62	45% 13628-16553 (30181)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 28.9¢	$21.93	$22.04	+$0.11	51% 7336-7083 (14419)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$10.71	$11.5	+$0.79	50% 25241-24955 (50196)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.45	+$0.03	52% 8449-7707 (16156)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$0.37	$0.4	+$0.03	50% 35605-35075 (70680)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,044.12

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$22.53

Record

50%

27272-27188 (54460)

Both legs:

Over$2,435.1272¢-$67.64

Under$60927¢+$45.11

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Over

Invested

$2,920

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$20

Record

67%

232-114 (346)

Ethanael02

Over

Invested

$2,680

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$91.78

Record

62%

97-59 (156)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,184.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$34.21

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$980.99

Value

$973.39

PnL

-$7.59

Record

56%

935-734 (1669)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$117.47

Value

$126.18

PnL

+$2.18

Record

53%

16379-14547 (30926)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$120

Value

$118

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

1717-1639 (3356)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$166.41

Value

$88.68

PnL

+$3.18

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

Both legs:

Invested

$41.09

Value

$39.95

PnL

-$1.14

Record

64%

1845-1027 (2872)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$28.98

Value

$28.37

PnL

-$0.62

Record

45%

13628-16553 (30181)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.93

Value

$22.04

PnL

+$0.11

Record

51%

7336-7083 (14419)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.71

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0.79

Record

50%

25241-24955 (50196)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

8449-7707 (16156)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

35605-35075 (70680)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (10 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.