Villarreal CF vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 86¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 3

Over86¢Under14¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$413.34

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 86¢

-13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over86%

Under14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,541

Combined PnL-$461.57

Under4 traders

Total Value$244.91

Total Shares1,719

Combined PnL+$48.23

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
wesolyjasiu	Overavg 99.9¢	$2.9K	$2.5K	-$397.29	99% 1856-15 (1871)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 96¢	$551.72	$494.25	-$57.47	56% 7565-5995 (13560)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 11¢	$186.36	$235.04	+$48.76	50% 35666-35143 (70809)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 86.2¢	$222.31	$226.47	+$4.16	50% 27376-27294 (54670)
└ Over leg	Overavg 86.2¢	$162.32	$161.87	-$0.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 13¢	$59.99	$64.6	+$4.61
ZX zxc368<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$45.09	$38.82	-$6.27	98% 14021-249 (14270)
CA Cannae<$100	Overavg 86.8¢	$36.49	$36.33	-$0.16	53% 16406-14573 (30979)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 87.8¢	$17.55	$17.2	-$0.35	58% 18645-13742 (32387)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 14.6¢	$4.45	$4.27	-$0.18	53% 961-861 (1822)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Underavg 14.6¢	$4.38	$4.2	-$0.18	51% 6235-5983 (12218)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 87¢	$2.61	$2.58	-$0.03	45% 10667-12831 (23498)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 15.6¢	$1.56	$1.4	-$0.16	53% 951-831 (1782)

wesolyjasiu

Over

Invested

$2,855.31

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$397.29

Record

99%

1856-15 (1871)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$551.72

Value

$494.25

PnL

-$57.47

Record

56%

7565-5995 (13560)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$186.36

Value

$235.04

PnL

+$48.76

Record

50%

35666-35143 (70809)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$222.31

Value

$226.47

PnL

+$4.16

Record

50%

27376-27294 (54670)

Both legs:

Over$162.3286.2¢-$0.45

Under$59.9913¢+$4.61

zxc368<$100

Over

Invested

$45.09

Value

$38.82

PnL

-$6.27

Record

98%

14021-249 (14270)

Cannae<$100

Over

Invested

$36.49

Value

$36.33

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

16406-14573 (30979)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$17.55

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

18645-13742 (32387)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

961-861 (1822)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.38

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.18

Record

51%

6235-5983 (12218)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.03

Record

45%

10667-12831 (23498)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

951-831 (1782)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.