Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Villarreal CF (70%) · Villarreal CF at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

Paris Saint-Germain FC18¢Villarreal CF82¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Villarreal CF

Consensus Traders

Villarreal CF 70%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$78.46

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 82.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralVillarreal CF at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Villarreal CF

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Paris Saint-Germain FC18%

Villarreal CF83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Villarreal CF7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,078

Combined PnL+$72.66

Paris Saint-Germain FC3 traders

Total Value$285.33

Total Shares1,607

Combined PnL+$5.8

Villarreal CF — 70%Paris Saint-Germain FC — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Villarreal CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVillarreal CF 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrParis Saint-Germain FC 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Villarreal CF 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Villarreal CFavg 78.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$63.98	51% 23310-22121 (45431)
nigiri99	Villarreal CFavg 82.8¢	$623.2	$621.23	-$1.97	46% 8209-9573 (17782)
GO GoalLineGhost	Villarreal CFavg 80.3¢	$263.03	$268.6	+$5.57	50% 27114-27048 (54162)
HI hi774cCTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 17¢	$223.43	$230.01	+$6.57	50% 4910-4826 (9736)
LI LightParadox	Villarreal CFavg 82¢	$142.68	$142.68	+$0.87	53% 874-763 (1637)
VE Venusian<$100	Villarreal CFavg 79¢	$78.21	$81.18	+$3.47	53% 887-780 (1667)
38 38791873984189CTR	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 18¢	$104.26	$37.82	+$2.73	48% 14300-15778 (30078)
GH ghorrock<$100	Villarreal CFavg 80.4¢	$34.98	$35.67	+$0.68	57% 17905-13394 (31299)
leflaiveCTR<$100	Paris Saint-Germain FCavg 21¢	$21	$17.5	-$3.5	42% 1204-1642 (2846)
HRTrading<$100	Villarreal CFavg 81¢	$10.53	$10.66	+$0.07	51% 7293-7046 (14339)

Flaznorp

Villarreal CF

Invested

$1,285.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$63.98

Record

51%

23310-22121 (45431)

nigiri99

Villarreal CF

Invested

$623.2

Value

$621.23

PnL

-$1.97

Record

46%

8209-9573 (17782)

GoalLineGhost

Villarreal CF

Invested

$263.03

Value

$268.6

PnL

+$5.57

Record

50%

27114-27048 (54162)

hi774cCTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$223.43

Value

$230.01

PnL

+$6.57

Record

50%

4910-4826 (9736)

LightParadox

Villarreal CF

Invested

$142.68

Value

$142.68

PnL

+$0.87

Record

53%

874-763 (1637)

Venusian<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$78.21

Value

$81.18

PnL

+$3.47

Record

53%

887-780 (1667)

38791873984189CTR

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$104.26

Value

$37.82

PnL

+$2.73

Record

48%

14300-15778 (30078)

ghorrock<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$34.98

Value

$35.67

PnL

+$0.68

Record

57%

17905-13394 (31299)

leflaiveCTR<$100

Paris Saint-Germain FC

Invested

$21

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

42%

1204-1642 (2846)

HRTrading<$100

Villarreal CF

Invested

$10.53

Value

$10.66

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

7293-7046 (14339)

Research grade

NeutralVillarreal CF at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Villarreal CF

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Villarreal CF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVillarreal CF 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrParis Saint-Germain FC 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Villarreal CF 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Villarreal CF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.