Exact Score: Villarreal CF 1 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$36.6

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 93.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares6,388

Combined PnL-$7.23

Yes4 traders

Total Value$560.52

Total Shares8,089

Combined PnL+$43.83

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SB sbimbg	Noavg 92¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$8.97	70% 3234-1395 (4629)
LI Limousin	Noavg 93.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$10.4	56% 942-736 (1678)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 93¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.87	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 93.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$1.87	54% 906-787 (1693)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93¢	$866.87	$871.53	+$4.66	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
0X 0xf1183431be2c3720e013a1dd8b5d3a0d2cc34e2aCTR	Yesavg 7.4¢	$316.95	$300	-$16.95	17% 15-72 (87)
RE resuilddeCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$140	$130	-$10	— 4-7 (11)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$49.65	$122.23	+$72.58	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$80.62	$80.62	+$0	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 93¢	$24.49	$24.23	-$0.26	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$21.46	$21.28	-$0.19	52% 830-771 (1601)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$10.1	$8.29	-$1.8	45% 13648-16581 (30229)

sbimbg

Invested

$1,650.44

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$8.97

Record

70%

3234-1395 (4629)

Limousin

Invested

$1,180.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$10.4

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,104.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$11.87

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

LightParadox

Invested

$1,001.38

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.87

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

SnakeBall

Invested

$866.87

Value

$871.53

PnL

+$4.66

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

0xf1183431be2c3720e013a1dd8b5d3a0d2cc34e2aCTR

Yes

Invested

$316.95

Value

$300

PnL

-$16.95

Record

17%

15-72 (87)

resuilddeCTR

Yes

Invested

$140

Value

$130

PnL

-$10

Record

—

4-7 (11)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$49.65

Value

$122.23

PnL

+$72.58

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$80.62

Value

$80.62

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$24.49

Value

$24.23

PnL

-$0.26

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$21.46

Value

$21.28

PnL

-$0.19

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.1

Value

$8.29

PnL

-$1.8

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.