Will Viking FK win on 2026-11-04?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (18%) · Yes at 71¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 4

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 18%

Total Value

$20.1K

Combined PnL

-$182.28

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 70.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares16,859

Combined PnL-$64.32

No9 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares26,899

Combined PnL-$117.96

Yes — 18%No — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 71.3¢	$10.9K	$10.8K	-$117.35	50% 27765-27628 (55393)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 29.8¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$50.94	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 30.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$15.15	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
fraj0la	Yesavg 66¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$53.03	64% 245-139 (384)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 31.6¢	$2.3K	$702.34	-$25.86	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 31.2¢	$695	$657.44	-$37.56	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 29.7¢	$444.13	$441.62	-$2.51	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 30¢	$145	$147.41	+$2.42	50% 25480-25186 (50666)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 33.7¢	$151.32	$134.55	-$16.77	53% 16515-14663 (31178)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$13.18	$11.63	-$1.55	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$1.98	$1.65	-$0.33	51% 7648-7364 (15012)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$10,935.09

Value

$10.8K

PnL

-$117.35

Record

50%

27765-27628 (55393)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$5,089.37

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$50.94

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,045.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$15.15

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$53.03

Record

64%

245-139 (384)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$2,302.75

Value

$702.34

PnL

-$25.86

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$695

Value

$657.44

PnL

-$37.56

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$444.13

Value

$441.62

PnL

-$2.51

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$145

Value

$147.41

PnL

+$2.42

Record

50%

25480-25186 (50666)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$151.32

Value

$134.55

PnL

-$16.77

Record

53%

16515-14663 (31178)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$13.18

Value

$11.63

PnL

-$1.55

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.33

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.