Viking FK vs. Sabah FK: O/U 4.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$63.98
71.1¢ → 67.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+14 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 71.7¢ | $1.0K | $944.66 | -$59.29 | 50% 27765-27630 (55395) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 69¢ | $164.91 | $160.13 | -$3.59 | 48% 59237-63255 (122492) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $123.13 | $137.17 | +$14.03 | 51% 24219-22949 (47168) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 28¢ | $87.3 | $101.33 | +$14.03 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 67¢ | $35.83 | $35.83 | +$0 | |
LI LimousinCTR | Overavg 32.1¢ | $107.11 | $108.55 | +$1.44 | 54% 1189-1028 (2217) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 68.4¢ | $56.36 | $44.9 | -$1.46 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 69.2¢ | $37.73 | $36.55 | -$1.17 | 58% 19455-14308 (33763) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Overavg 32.1¢ | $13.24 | $13.42 | +$0.18 | 74% 2421-862 (3283) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $10.7 | $10.62 | -$0.08 | 50% 25481-25189 (50670) |
Invested
$1,003.95
Value
$944.66
PnL
-$59.29
Record
50%
27765-27630 (55395)
Invested
$164.91
Value
$160.13
PnL
-$3.59
Record
48%
59237-63255 (122492)
Invested
$123.13
Value
$137.17
PnL
+$14.03
Record
51%
24219-22949 (47168)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.11
Value
$108.55
PnL
+$1.44
Record
54%
1189-1028 (2217)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$56.36
Value
$44.9
PnL
-$1.46
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Invested
$37.73
Value
$36.55
PnL
-$1.17
Record
58%
19455-14308 (33763)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$13.24
Value
$13.42
PnL
+$0.18
Record
74%
2421-862 (3283)
Invested
$10.7
Value
$10.62
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
25481-25189 (50670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.