Viking FK vs. Sabah FK: Both Teams to Score

3 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (19%) · Yes at 68¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 4

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 19%

Total Value

$24.9K

Combined PnL

-$122.88

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 67.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 16 top traders (19%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares22,642

Combined PnL+$414.75

No13 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares27,429

Combined PnL-$537.63

Yes — 19%No — 81%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 65.2¢	$11.5K	$11.9K	+$388.82	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 35.7¢	$9.2K	$8.7K	-$524.5	71% 7114-2861 (9975)
nigiri99	Yesavg 66¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$22.24	46% 8408-9878 (18286)
HRTrading	Yesavg 65¢	$453.01	$456.71	+$3.69	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 39.2¢	$203.53	$194.81	-$8.72	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 32¢	$160	$162.5	+$2.5	40% 1343-2035 (3378)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 36.5¢	$146	$142	-$4	56% 7722-6185 (13907)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 34¢	$136	$134	-$2	51% 1790-1709 (3499)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$89.79	$91.19	+$1.4	49% 14323-15001 (29324)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$59	$59.92	+$0.92	39% 1338-2112 (3450)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$38	$37	-$1	50% 36335-35819 (72154)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 39.2¢	$36.83	$35.25	-$1.58	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$23.7	$23.35	-$0.35	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$12.85	$12.68	-$0.17	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 33.2¢	$6.76	$6.62	-$0.14	55% 1303-1085 (2388)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$0.52	$0.51	-$0.01	48% 59237-63255 (122492)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$11,482.17

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$388.82

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$9,249.89

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$524.5

Record

71%

7114-2861 (9975)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$2,935.02

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$22.24

Record

46%

8408-9878 (18286)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$453.01

Value

$456.71

PnL

+$3.69

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$203.53

Value

$194.81

PnL

-$8.72

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$160

Value

$162.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

40%

1343-2035 (3378)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$146

Value

$142

PnL

-$4

Record

56%

7722-6185 (13907)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$136

Value

$134

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

1790-1709 (3499)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$89.79

Value

$91.19

PnL

+$1.4

Record

49%

14323-15001 (29324)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$59

Value

$59.92

PnL

+$0.92

Record

39%

1338-2112 (3450)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$38

Value

$37

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

36335-35819 (72154)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$36.83

Value

$35.25

PnL

-$1.58

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$23.7

Value

$23.35

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$12.85

Value

$12.68

PnL

-$0.17

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$6.76

Value

$6.62

PnL

-$0.14

Record

55%

1303-1085 (2388)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 16 top traders (19%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.