Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold SK Slavia Praha, while the market favors Arsenal FC (99%). 13 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: SK Slavia Praha (-1.5)

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold SK Slavia Praha (93%) · SK Slavia Praha at 1.2¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

SK Slavia Praha1¢Arsenal FC99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

SK Slavia Praha

Consensus Traders

SK Slavia Praha 93%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$122.08

Smart Money Entry

1.5¢ → 1.2¢

-22% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidSK Slavia Praha at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

SK Slavia Praha

13 of 14 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Arsenal FC 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

SK Slavia Praha1%

Arsenal FC99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arsenal FC1 trader

Total Value$603.89

Total Shares600

Combined PnL+$1.37

SK Slavia Praha13 traders

Total Value$678.05

Total Shares52,100

Combined PnL-$123.45

Arsenal FC — 7%SK Slavia Praha — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on SK Slavia Praha. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSK Slavia Praha 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrSK Slavia Praha 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSK Slavia Praha 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000SK Slavia Praha 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Arsenal FCavg 98.6¢	$864.81	$603.89	+$1.37	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.5¢	$615	$520	-$95	52% 5948-5557 (11505)
FL FlaznorpCTR	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.6¢	$131.29	$107.33	-$23.96	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.4¢	$27.22	$25.28	-$1.94	49% 14323-15001 (29324)
HRTradingCTR<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.6¢	$7.79	$6.46	-$1.32	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.5¢	$5.06	$4.89	-$0.17	49% 6203-6345 (12548)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.4¢	$3.43	$3.43	+$0	49% 3293-3423 (6716)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.5¢	$3.6	$3.19	-$0.41	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.3¢	$2.6	$2.6	+$0	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.3¢	$1.54	$1.54	-$0	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.5¢	$1.47	$1.3	-$0.17	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.5¢	$1.1	$0.98	-$0.13	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.8¢	$1.25	$0.91	-$0.34	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	SK Slavia Prahaavg 1.3¢	$0.15	$0.15	+$0	50% 25481-25189 (50670)

38791873984189

Arsenal FC

Invested

$864.81

Value

$603.89

PnL

+$1.37

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$615

Value

$520

PnL

-$95

Record

52%

5948-5557 (11505)

FlaznorpCTR

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$131.29

Value

$107.33

PnL

-$23.96

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$27.22

Value

$25.28

PnL

-$1.94

Record

49%

14323-15001 (29324)

HRTradingCTR<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$7.79

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$1.32

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

purplegattoCTR<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$5.06

Value

$4.89

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

6203-6345 (12548)

dv-pmCTR<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$3.43

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

3293-3423 (6716)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$0.41

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

CannaeCTR<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

ghorrockCTR<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.17

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

VenusianCTR<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

LimousinCTR<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.34

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

sentrioCTR<$100

SK Slavia Praha

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

Research grade

AvoidSK Slavia Praha at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

SK Slavia Praha

13 of 14 top traders (93%)Underdog side (market favors Arsenal FC 99%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on SK Slavia Praha. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSK Slavia Praha 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrSK Slavia Praha 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSK Slavia Praha 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000SK Slavia Praha 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that SK Slavia Praha wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4233.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

4333.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.