Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FK Shakhtar Donetsk (86%) · FK Shakhtar Donetsk at 74¢ · $721 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
FK Shakhtar Donetsk
7
FK Shakhtar Donetsk 86%
$720.8
$1.04
73.9¢ → 74¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralFK Shakhtar Donetsk at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on FK Shakhtar Donetsk. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | FK Shakhtar Donetskavg 74¢ | $403.46 | $403.46 | +$0 | 51% 21008-19991 (40999) |
CA Cannae | FK Shakhtar Donetskavg 74¢ | $148 | $148 | +$0 | 53% 16320-14486 (30806) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | FK Shakhtar Donetskavg 73¢ | $81.62 | $82.73 | +$1.12 | 72% 6950-2756 (9706) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | FK Shakhtar Donetskavg 74¢ | $37 | $37 | +$0 | 54% 629-546 (1175) |
VE Venusian<$100 | FK Shakhtar Donetskavg 74¢ | $37 | $37 | +$0 | 52% 605-551 (1156) |
SE sentrio<$100 | FK Shakhtar Donetskavg 74¢ | $10.94 | $10.94 | -$0.07 | 50% 25084-24791 (49875) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Sporting CPavg 25¢ | $1.67 | $1.67 | +$0 | 58% 43898-31943 (75841) |
Invested
$403.46
Value
$403.46
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
21008-19991 (40999)
Invested
$148
Value
$148
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
16320-14486 (30806)
Invested
$81.62
Value
$82.73
PnL
+$1.12
Record
72%
6950-2756 (9706)
Invested
$37
Value
$37
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
629-546 (1175)
Invested
$37
Value
$37
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
605-551 (1156)
Invested
$10.94
Value
$10.94
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
25084-24791 (49875)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.67
Value
$1.67
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
43898-31943 (75841)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.