Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-11-04?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 74¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$91.74

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 73.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares7,978

Combined PnL+$4.19

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,741

Combined PnL-$95.93

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 73¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0.04	54% 1178-1008 (2186)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$20.84	50% 27743-27603 (55346)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 27.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$90.78	71% 7038-2817 (9855)
NM NM-P	Noavg 73¢	$760.5	$766.76	+$6.26	46% 1299-1520 (2819)
GC GC-P	Noavg 73¢	$736.13	$735.7	-$0.11	47% 1324-1519 (2843)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 72.3¢	$464.82	$469.5	+$4.68	51% 1084-1025 (2109)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 72¢	$318.32	$322.76	+$4.43	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
CA Cannae	Noavg 70¢	$211.18	$220.19	+$9.01	53% 16492-14656 (31148)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 73¢	$69.91	$69.9	-$0.01	53% 1134-1025 (2159)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$37.15	$32.2	-$4.95	48% 58721-62631 (121352)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$28.36	$28.71	+$0.35	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$16.8	$17.16	+$0.36	51% 7644-7356 (15000)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.3	-$0.2	52% 8553-7794 (16347)

Limousin

Invested

$1,746.89

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

1178-1008 (2186)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,564.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$20.84

Record

50%

27743-27603 (55346)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,549.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$90.78

Record

71%

7038-2817 (9855)

NM-P

Invested

$760.5

Value

$766.76

PnL

+$6.26

Record

46%

1299-1520 (2819)

GC-P

Invested

$736.13

Value

$735.7

PnL

-$0.11

Record

47%

1324-1519 (2843)

MadridTime

Invested

$464.82

Value

$469.5

PnL

+$4.68

Record

51%

1084-1025 (2109)

Flaznorp

Invested

$318.32

Value

$322.76

PnL

+$4.43

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

Cannae

Invested

$211.18

Value

$220.19

PnL

+$9.01

Record

53%

16492-14656 (31148)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$69.91

Value

$69.9

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

1134-1025 (2159)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.15

Value

$32.2

PnL

-$4.95

Record

48%

58721-62631 (121352)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.36

Value

$28.71

PnL

+$0.35

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$0.36

Record

51%

7644-7356 (15000)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

8553-7794 (16347)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.