Will Como 1907 win on 2026-11-04?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $961 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$960.56
$7.87
54.9¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 55¢ | $371.68 | $557.74 | +$8.32 | 51% 17602-16613 (34215) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 55.1¢ | $283.12 | $173.79 | -$1.61 | 58% 43585-31701 (75286) |
FE ferdinand2 | Noavg 55¢ | $143 | $143 | +$0 | 51% 990-958 (1948) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $56.83 | $57.88 | +$1.05 | 47% 12949-14528 (27477) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $15.95 | $15.95 | +$0 | 53% 6367-5753 (12120) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $12.09 | $12.2 | +$0.11 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
Invested
$371.68
Value
$557.74
PnL
+$8.32
Record
51%
17602-16613 (34215)
VeryLucky888Invested
$283.12
Value
$173.79
PnL
-$1.61
Record
58%
43585-31701 (75286)
Invested
$143
Value
$143
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
990-958 (1948)
Invested
$56.83
Value
$57.88
PnL
+$1.05
Record
47%
12949-14528 (27477)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$15.95
Value
$15.95
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6367-5753 (12120)
Invested
$12.09
Value
$12.2
PnL
+$0.11
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.