Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Racing Club de Lens vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 0.5¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 4

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$193.44

Smart Money Entry

40.8¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares6,360

Combined PnL+$62.04

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,871

Combined PnL+$131.4

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 42¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$113.45	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
└ No leg	Noavg 42¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$157.12
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$43.67
RN1CTR	Noavg 41.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$64.14	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 62¢	$948.86	$948.87	+$0.01	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 66.8¢	$688.66	$676.6	+$146.04	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 38.4¢	$566	$567.3	+$1.3	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 62.6¢	$895.88	$301.79	-$7.15	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 42¢	$122.9	$144.79	+$21.88	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 91.4¢	$85.53	$80	-$5.53	76% 4413-1366 (5779)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 38.8¢	$68.22	$75.72	+$7.5	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
US User7429<$100	Yesavg 90.4¢	$76.74	$72.54	-$4.2	56% 8926-7132 (16058)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 39.2¢	$62.68	$60	-$2.68	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 36.1¢	$38.94	$41.02	+$2.08	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 36.6¢	$30.37	$32.71	+$2.34	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
SH shiifoo<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$21.12	$23.35	+$2.23	59% 3713-2582 (6295)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$51.05	$16.45	-$34.6	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 38.2¢	$5.34	$5.32	-$0.02	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$4.02	$4.13	+$0.11	39% 1339-2113 (3452)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$3,517.68

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$113.45

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Both legs:

No$2,172.142¢+$157.12

Yes$1,345.5956.8¢-$43.67

RN1CTR

Invested

$1,667.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$64.14

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$948.86

Value

$948.87

PnL

+$0.01

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$688.66

Value

$676.6

PnL

+$146.04

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$566

Value

$567.3

PnL

+$1.3

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$895.88

Value

$301.79

PnL

-$7.15

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$122.9

Value

$144.79

PnL

+$21.88

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.53

Value

$80

PnL

-$5.53

Record

76%

4413-1366 (5779)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$68.22

Value

$75.72

PnL

+$7.5

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

User7429<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.74

Value

$72.54

PnL

-$4.2

Record

56%

8926-7132 (16058)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$62.68

Value

$60

PnL

-$2.68

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$38.94

Value

$41.02

PnL

+$2.08

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$30.37

Value

$32.71

PnL

+$2.34

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

shiifoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.12

Value

$23.35

PnL

+$2.23

Record

59%

3713-2582 (6295)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$51.05

Value

$16.45

PnL

-$34.6

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$5.34

Value

$5.32

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$4.02

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.11

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.