Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold RB Leipzig, while the market favors Manchester City FC (98%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: RB Leipzig (-2.5)
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold RB Leipzig (100%) · RB Leipzig at 2.3¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
RB Leipzig
7
RB Leipzig 100%
$1.5K
$202.69
2¢ → 2.3¢
+11% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidRB Leipzig at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Manchester City FC 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on RB Leipzig. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | RB Leipzigavg 2¢ | $1.0K | $1.2K | +$175 | 52% 5946-5556 (11502) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | RB Leipzigavg 2.2¢ | $156.84 | $167.32 | +$10.48 | 51% 1089-1037 (2126) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | RB Leipzigavg 2¢ | $75.6 | $88.68 | +$13.08 | 49% 14322-14999 (29321) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | RB Leipzigavg 2.2¢ | $32.1 | $34.24 | +$2.15 | 52% 1153-1075 (2228) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | RB Leipzigavg 2.2¢ | $22.47 | $23.97 | +$1.5 | 52% 1140-1038 (2178) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | RB Leipzigavg 2.2¢ | $12.87 | $13.73 | +$0.86 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | RB Leipzigavg 2.4¢ | $9 | $8.63 | -$0.38 | 48% 59224-63218 (122442) |
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$175
Record
52%
5946-5556 (11502)
Invested
$156.84
Value
$167.32
PnL
+$10.48
Record
51%
1089-1037 (2126)
Invested
$75.6
Value
$88.68
PnL
+$13.08
Record
49%
14322-14999 (29321)
Invested
$32.1
Value
$34.24
PnL
+$2.15
Record
52%
1153-1075 (2228)
Invested
$22.47
Value
$23.97
PnL
+$1.5
Record
52%
1140-1038 (2178)
Invested
$12.87
Value
$13.73
PnL
+$0.86
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
Invested
$9
Value
$8.63
PnL
-$0.38
Record
48%
59224-63218 (122442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.