Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Manchester City FC (31%) · Manchester City FC at 93¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

RB Leipzig8¢Manchester City FC92¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Manchester City FC

Consensus Traders

Manchester City FC 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$269.25

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 92.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralManchester City FC at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Manchester City FC

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

RB Leipzig8%

Manchester City FC93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Manchester City FC4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,591

Combined PnL+$24.29

RB Leipzig9 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares31,599

Combined PnL+$244.96

Manchester City FC — 31%RB Leipzig — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Manchester City FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Manchester City FC) and the top 1000 (10 on RB Leipzig) disagree here.

whaleRB Leipzig 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrRB Leipzig 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedManchester City FC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000RB Leipzig 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Manchester City FCavg 93¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$14.2	50% 27765-27630 (55395)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	RB Leipzigavg 6¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$250	52% 5948-5557 (11505)
38 38791873984189	Manchester City FCavg 93¢	$583.36	$414.83	+$2.55	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
MA MadridTimeCTR	RB Leipzigavg 7.3¢	$304.76	$291.22	-$13.54	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
CA Cannae	Manchester City FCavg 92¢	$256.26	$263.14	+$6.88	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	RB Leipzigavg 6¢	$145.76	$170.5	+$24.74	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
└ RB Leipzig leg	RB Leipzigavg 6¢	$97.92	$122.4	+$24.48
└ Manchester City FC leg	Manchester City FCavg 92¢	$47.84	$48.1	+$0.26
HI hi774cCTR<$100	RB Leipzigavg 6¢	$65.11	$75.96	+$5.43	50% 4959-4888 (9847)
GH ghorrock<$100	Manchester City FCavg 93¢	$32.91	$33.56	+$0.65	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	RB Leipzigavg 7¢	$28	$30	+$2	51% 1790-1709 (3499)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	RB Leipzigavg 7¢	$26.95	$25.03	-$1.92	49% 3293-3423 (6716)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	RB Leipzigavg 6¢	$15.96	$18.62	+$2.66	50% 1337-1356 (2693)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	RB Leipzigavg 7¢	$8.52	$9.13	+$0.61	50% 36335-35819 (72154)
nigiri99CTR<$100	RB Leipzigavg 8¢	$9.36	$8.78	-$0.58	46% 8408-9878 (18286)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	RB Leipzigavg 6¢	$3.81	$4.45	+$0.32	50% 25481-25189 (50670)

GoalLineGhost

Manchester City FC

Invested

$2,800.27

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$14.2

Record

50%

27765-27630 (55395)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

RB Leipzig

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$250

Record

52%

5948-5557 (11505)

38791873984189

Manchester City FC

Invested

$583.36

Value

$414.83

PnL

+$2.55

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

MadridTimeCTR

RB Leipzig

Invested

$304.76

Value

$291.22

PnL

-$13.54

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

Cannae

Manchester City FC

Invested

$256.26

Value

$263.14

PnL

+$6.88

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

FlaznorpARB<$100

RB Leipzig

Invested

$145.76

Value

$170.5

PnL

+$24.74

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

Both legs:

RB Leipzig$97.926¢+$24.48

Manchester City FC$47.8492¢+$0.26

hi774cCTR<$100

RB Leipzig

Invested

$65.11

Value

$75.96

PnL

+$5.43

Record

50%

4959-4888 (9847)

ghorrock<$100

Manchester City FC

Invested

$32.91

Value

$33.56

PnL

+$0.65

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

RB Leipzig

Invested

$28

Value

$30

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1790-1709 (3499)

dv-pmCTR<$100

RB Leipzig

Invested

$26.95

Value

$25.03

PnL

-$1.92

Record

49%

3293-3423 (6716)

forecastication4CTR<$100

RB Leipzig

Invested

$15.96

Value

$18.62

PnL

+$2.66

Record

50%

1337-1356 (2693)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

RB Leipzig

Invested

$8.52

Value

$9.13

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

36335-35819 (72154)

nigiri99CTR<$100

RB Leipzig

Invested

$9.36

Value

$8.78

PnL

-$0.58

Record

46%

8408-9878 (18286)

sentrioCTR<$100

RB Leipzig

Invested

$3.81

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

Research grade

NeutralManchester City FC at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Manchester City FC

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Manchester City FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Manchester City FC) and the top 1000 (10 on RB Leipzig) disagree here.

whaleRB Leipzig 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrRB Leipzig 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedManchester City FC 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000RB Leipzig 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Manchester City FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.