Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 32¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$1.0K
-$7.91
32.1¢ → 31.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 67.9¢ | $444.47 | $448.09 | +$3.61 | 58% 44906-32675 (77581) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 31¢ | $248.85 | $252.86 | +$4.01 | 53% 16454-14621 (31075) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Noavg 33.1¢ | $238.15 | $226.72 | -$11.43 | 51% 1041-990 (2031) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 32.6¢ | $102.74 | $99.16 | -$3.58 | 51% 23811-22567 (46378) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.3¢ | $21.3 | $15.18 | -$0.46 | 58% 18975-13958 (32933) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $2.6 | $2.64 | +$0.04 | 50% 25470-25164 (50634) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $2.46 | $2.35 | -$0.11 | 55% 1295-1076 (2371) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$444.47
Value
$448.09
PnL
+$3.61
Record
58%
44906-32675 (77581)
Invested
$248.85
Value
$252.86
PnL
+$4.01
Record
53%
16454-14621 (31075)
Invested
$238.15
Value
$226.72
PnL
-$11.43
Record
51%
1041-990 (2031)
Invested
$102.74
Value
$99.16
PnL
-$3.58
Record
51%
23811-22567 (46378)
Invested
$21.3
Value
$15.18
PnL
-$0.46
Record
58%
18975-13958 (32933)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$2.64
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
25470-25164 (50634)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$0.11
Record
55%
1295-1076 (2371)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.