FC Porto vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$94.3

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 52.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,105

Combined PnL-$97.53

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,696

Combined PnL+$3.22

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Overavg 54.5¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$89.4	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$27.15	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.2¢	$914.24	$919.36	+$5.11
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$709.68	$677.43	-$32.26
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$918.87	$712.48	-$3.38	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 47¢	$199.74	$201.87	+$2.12	39% 1335-2099 (3434)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 47.2¢	$189.56	$190.9	+$1.34	52% 1153-1075 (2228)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 55¢	$173.8	$165.9	-$7.9	64% 1890-1047 (2937)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$91.57	$92.54	+$0.97	50% 25480-25186 (50666)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$52.91	$53.2	+$0.29	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 55¢	$33.76	$33.58	-$0.18	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
ReformedxCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$27.5	$29.38	+$1.88	51% 859-824 (1683)
NM NM-P<$100	Overavg 52¢	$12.22	$12.34	+$0.12	46% 1301-1520 (2821)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 57.2¢	$4.79	$4.36	-$0.04	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.63	-$0.13	52% 8574-7820 (16394)

AnonymousUsername

Over

Invested

$2,652.93

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$89.4

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,623.93

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$27.15

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

Both legs:

Under$914.2447.2¢+$5.11

Over$709.6855¢-$32.26

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$918.87

Value

$712.48

PnL

-$3.38

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$199.74

Value

$201.87

PnL

+$2.12

Record

39%

1335-2099 (3434)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$189.56

Value

$190.9

PnL

+$1.34

Record

52%

1153-1075 (2228)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$173.8

Value

$165.9

PnL

-$7.9

Record

64%

1890-1047 (2937)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.57

Value

$92.54

PnL

+$0.97

Record

50%

25480-25186 (50666)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.91

Value

$53.2

PnL

+$0.29

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$33.76

Value

$33.58

PnL

-$0.18

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

ReformedxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.5

Value

$29.38

PnL

+$1.88

Record

51%

859-824 (1683)

NM-P<$100

Over

Invested

$12.22

Value

$12.34

PnL

+$0.12

Record

46%

1301-1520 (2821)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.36

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.63

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

8574-7820 (16394)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.