FC Porto vs. SSC Napoli: FC Porto O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 84¢ · $304 held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$303.54
$78.56
91.9¢ → 84¢
-9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 92¢ | $176.41 | $173.1 | -$3.31 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 10.4¢ | $14.52 | $67.37 | +$52.85 | 54% 1193-1031 (2224) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $3.56 | $17.27 | +$13.71 | 50% 25488-25195 (50683) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $12.86 | $16.03 | +$3.17 | 50% 36339-35820 (72159) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 8.4¢ | $2.35 | $13.6 | +$11.25 | 51% 7653-7369 (15022) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 92¢ | $23.07 | $12.76 | +$0.07 | 58% 19471-14317 (33788) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 8.4¢ | $2.6 | $3.41 | +$0.82 | 51% 1095-1048 (2143) |
Invested
$176.41
Value
$173.1
PnL
-$3.31
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
Invested
$14.52
Value
$67.37
PnL
+$52.85
Record
54%
1193-1031 (2224)
Invested
$3.56
Value
$17.27
PnL
+$13.71
Record
50%
25488-25195 (50683)
Invested
$12.86
Value
$16.03
PnL
+$3.17
Record
50%
36339-35820 (72159)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
$13.6
PnL
+$11.25
Record
51%
7653-7369 (15022)
Invested
$23.07
Value
$12.76
PnL
+$0.07
Record
58%
19471-14317 (33788)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$3.41
PnL
+$0.82
Record
51%
1095-1048 (2143)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.