Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will FC Porto win on 2026-11-04?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 49¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$7.1K
$118.77
47.1¢ → 48.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 47.1¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$113.64 | 51% 17621-16621 (34242) |
 Reformedx | Noavg 52¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | +$20 | 51% 847-798 (1645) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 51.5¢ | $450.09 | $357.64 | +$0.9 | 47% 13029-14600 (27629) |
HI hi774c | Noavg 54¢ | $353.39 | $333.76 | -$16.36 | 51% 4856-4597 (9453) |
DV dv-pm | Noavg 52¢ | $260 | $255 | +$2.5 | 49% 3238-3323 (6561) |
 HRTradingCTR | Yesavg 47.8¢ | $170.75 | $173.36 | -$0.96 | 53% 6378-5764 (12142) |
 leflaive | Noavg 52¢ | $104 | $103 | -$1 | 42% 1200-1634 (2834) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $6.27 | $6.33 | +$0.06 | 72% 6936-2743 (9679) |
Invested
$3,755.35
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$113.64
Record
51%
17621-16621 (34242)
ReformedxInvested
$2,080
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$20
Record
51%
847-798 (1645)
Invested
$450.09
Value
$357.64
PnL
+$0.9
Record
47%
13029-14600 (27629)
Invested
$353.39
Value
$333.76
PnL
-$16.36
Record
51%
4856-4597 (9453)
Invested
$260
Value
$255
PnL
+$2.5
Record
49%
3238-3323 (6561)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$170.75
Value
$173.36
PnL
-$0.96
Record
53%
6378-5764 (12142)
leflaiveInvested
$104
Value
$103
PnL
-$1
Record
42%
1200-1634 (2834)
Invested
$6.27
Value
$6.33
PnL
+$0.06
Record
72%
6936-2743 (9679)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.