Manchester United FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 0.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 97¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 3

Over97¢Under3¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

Total Value

$14.3K

Combined PnL

$1.51

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 96.6¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares14,312

Combined PnL-$21.59

Under5 traders

Total Value$437.81

Total Shares12,879

Combined PnL+$23.1

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Overavg 96.8¢	$13.8K	$13.7K	-$22.2	53% 2124-1866 (3990)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 3.2¢	$253.87	$267.07	+$13.2	51% 21008-19991 (40999)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 3.2¢	$157.89	$167.76	+$9.87	46% 9307-11077 (20384)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 96.4¢	$86.64	$87.24	+$0.61	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Underavg 3.2¢	$1.16	$1.15	-$0.01	62% 1244-761 (2005)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 3.4¢	$1.14	$1.15	+$0	54% 629-546 (1175)
NooseracCTR<$100	Underavg 3.2¢	$0.64	$0.68	+$0.04	52% 5900-5507 (11407)

0F62

Over

Invested

$13,770.83

Value

$13.7K

PnL

-$22.2

Record

53%

2124-1866 (3990)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$253.87

Value

$267.07

PnL

+$13.2

Record

51%

21008-19991 (40999)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$157.89

Value

$167.76

PnL

+$9.87

Record

46%

9307-11077 (20384)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$86.64

Value

$87.24

PnL

+$0.61

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

62%

1244-761 (2005)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

629-546 (1175)

NooseracCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.68

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

5900-5507 (11407)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.