Manchester United FC vs. AS Roma: Manchester United FC O/U 1.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$3.6K
$0.14
53¢ → 53¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$0 | 73% 3625-1339 (4964) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 51% 21008-19991 (40999) |
FE ferdinand2CTR | Underavg 47¢ | $294.41 | $294.41 | -$0 | 48% 5733-6182 (11915) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 47¢ | $136.52 | $136.57 | +$0.05 | 47% 13319-14853 (28172) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $22.09 | $22.09 | +$0 | 52% 6768-6135 (12903) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $5.42 | $3.08 | +$0.05 | 57% 17526-13092 (30618) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $1.7 | $1.74 | +$0.04 | 50% 34946-34393 (69339) |
Invested
$2,000.21
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
73%
3625-1339 (4964)
Invested
$1,129.04
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
21008-19991 (40999)
Invested
$294.41
Value
$294.41
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
5733-6182 (11915)
Invested
$136.52
Value
$136.57
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
13319-14853 (28172)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$22.09
Value
$22.09
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
6768-6135 (12903)
Invested
$5.42
Value
$3.08
PnL
+$0.05
Record
57%
17526-13092 (30618)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.74
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
34946-34393 (69339)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.