Spread: Manchester United FC (-3.5)

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold AS Roma (25%) · AS Roma at 96¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Manchester United FC4¢AS Roma96¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AS Roma

Consensus Traders

AS Roma 25%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$38.4

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 96¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAS Roma at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AS Roma

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Manchester United FC4%

AS Roma96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AS Roma3 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,879

Combined PnL-$0.15

Manchester United FC9 traders

Total Value$483.39

Total Shares11,216

Combined PnL+$38.55

AS Roma — 25%Manchester United FC — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on AS Roma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAS Roma 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpManchester United FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrManchester United FC 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Manchester United FC 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	AS Romaavg 96.2¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$0.66	50% 27241-27150 (54391)
LI LightParadox	AS Romaavg 96.2¢	$397.27	$396.5	-$0.77	53% 889-775 (1664)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Manchester United FCavg 3.7¢	$299.62	$321.41	+$21.8	51% 23358-22138 (45496)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 2.9¢	$35.76	$46.62	+$10.86	50% 4912-4827 (9739)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 3.3¢	$42.47	$44.45	+$1.98	49% 14098-14659 (28757)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 3.5¢	$26.74	$26.76	+$1.93	56% 915-719 (1634)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 3.5¢	$21.44	$21.44	+$1.53	48% 6134-6542 (12676)
MA MadridTime<$100	AS Romaavg 96.2¢	$19	$18.96	-$0.04	52% 812-758 (1570)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 4¢	$14.12	$14.12	+$0	47% 3201-3578 (6779)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 3.4¢	$4.25	$4.38	+$0.5	51% 7310-7059 (14369)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 3.8¢	$3.83	$2.14	-$0.1	58% 18458-13639 (32097)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Manchester United FCavg 3.5¢	$57	$2.08	+$0.06	54% 1259-1052 (2311)

GoalLineGhost

AS Roma

Invested

$5,308.49

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$0.66

Record

50%

27241-27150 (54391)

LightParadox

AS Roma

Invested

$397.27

Value

$396.5

PnL

-$0.77

Record

53%

889-775 (1664)

FlaznorpCTR

Manchester United FC

Invested

$299.62

Value

$321.41

PnL

+$21.8

Record

51%

23358-22138 (45496)

hi774cCTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$35.76

Value

$46.62

PnL

+$10.86

Record

50%

4912-4827 (9739)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$42.47

Value

$44.45

PnL

+$1.98

Record

49%

14098-14659 (28757)

LimousinCTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$26.74

Value

$26.76

PnL

+$1.93

Record

56%

915-719 (1634)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$21.44

Value

$21.44

PnL

+$1.53

Record

48%

6134-6542 (12676)

MadridTime<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$19

Value

$18.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

52%

812-758 (1570)

Zzzz87CTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$14.12

Value

$14.12

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

3201-3578 (6779)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

7310-7059 (14369)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$3.83

Value

$2.14

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

18458-13639 (32097)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Manchester United FC

Invested

$57

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

1259-1052 (2311)

Research grade

NeutralAS Roma at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

AS Roma

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on AS Roma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAS Roma 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpManchester United FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrManchester United FC 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Manchester United FC 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AS Roma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.