Exact Score: Manchester United FC 0 - 0 AS Roma?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$77.77

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,309

Combined PnL+$83.06

Yes3 traders

Total Value$151.77

Total Shares4,016

Combined PnL-$5.29

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.5¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$60.57	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
RN1	Noavg 96.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0.72	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 96.2¢	$688.03	$686.4	-$1.27	54% 906-787 (1693)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 96.1¢	$564.51	$587.21	+$22.7	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 99.7¢	$393.65	$394.81	+$1.16	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$84.79	$85.29	+$0.63	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$73.16	$71.15	-$2.01	52% 830-771 (1601)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$72.5	$68.71	-$3.79	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$11.4	$11.91	+$0.51	56% 942-736 (1678)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$1.27	$1.27	-$0.01	51% 7341-7085 (14426)

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,000.79

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$60.57

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

RN1

Invested

$1,383.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$0.72

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

LightParadox

Invested

$688.03

Value

$686.4

PnL

-$1.27

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

38791873984189

Invested

$564.51

Value

$587.21

PnL

+$22.7

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Flaznorp

Invested

$393.65

Value

$394.81

PnL

+$1.16

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$84.79

Value

$85.29

PnL

+$0.63

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.16

Value

$71.15

PnL

-$2.01

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.5

Value

$68.71

PnL

-$3.79

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.4

Value

$11.91

PnL

+$0.51

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.