LASK Linz vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: O/U 2.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 81¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3

Over81¢Under19¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$23.44

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 81¢

+12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over81%

Under19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,594

Combined PnL-$18.62

Under7 traders

Total Value$235.75

Total Shares807

Combined PnL-$4.82

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 72¢	$975.17	$955.96	-$19.21	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 69.8¢	$310.23	$316.27	+$6.04	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
└ Over leg	Overavg 69.8¢	$237.99	$236.9	-$1.09
└ Under leg	Underavg 27.8¢	$72.24	$79.37	+$7.13
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 71¢	$203.8	$201.56	-$2.24	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
└ Over leg	Overavg 71¢	$119.99	$119.15	-$0.84
└ Under leg	Underavg 30¢	$83.81	$82.41	-$1.4
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 72¢	$143.35	$144.35	+$1	64% 1845-1027 (2872)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 29¢	$105.59	$100.1	-$5.49	52% 830-771 (1601)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$50.75	$49.86	-$0.89	56% 942-736 (1678)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$47.29	$48.13	+$0.84	53% 16384-14558 (30942)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 74¢	$24.6	$23.94	-$0.33	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$17.52	$17.02	-$0.5	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 26.4¢	$15.17	$16.96	+$1.79	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 70.8¢	$14.31	$14.24	-$0.07	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
0X 0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100	Underavg 38.2¢	$2.84	$2.34	-$0.5	15% 1116-6362 (7478)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.35	-$0.08	54% 906-787 (1693)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$975.17

Value

$955.96

PnL

-$19.21

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$310.23

Value

$316.27

PnL

+$6.04

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

Both legs:

Over$237.9969.8¢-$1.09

Under$72.2427.8¢+$7.13

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$203.8

Value

$201.56

PnL

-$2.24

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

Both legs:

Invested

$143.35

Value

$144.35

PnL

+$1

Record

64%

1845-1027 (2872)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$105.59

Value

$100.1

PnL

-$5.49

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.75

Value

$49.86

PnL

-$0.89

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.29

Value

$48.13

PnL

+$0.84

Record

53%

16384-14558 (30942)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$24.6

Value

$23.94

PnL

-$0.33

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.52

Value

$17.02

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.17

Value

$16.96

PnL

+$1.79

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$14.31

Value

$14.24

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.84

Value

$2.34

PnL

-$0.5

Record

15%

1116-6362 (7478)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.08

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.