Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold LASK Linz, while the market favors ŠK Slovan Bratislava (51%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: LASK Linz (-1.5)

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold LASK Linz (20%) · LASK Linz at 50¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 3

LASK Linz50¢ŠK Slovan Bratislava50¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LASK Linz

Consensus Traders

LASK Linz 20%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$55.37

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLASK Linz at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LASK Linz

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors ŠK Slovan Bratislava 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LASK Linz50%

ŠK Slovan Bratislava51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LASK Linz2 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares16,884

Combined PnL+$109.74

ŠK Slovan Bratislava8 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,926

Combined PnL-$54.37

LASK Linz — 20%ŠK Slovan Bratislava — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on LASK Linz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleŠK Slovan Bratislava 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpŠK Slovan Bratislava 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrŠK Slovan Bratislava 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedŠK Slovan Bratislava 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000ŠK Slovan Bratislava 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	LASK Linzavg 49.3¢	$8.3K	$8.4K	+$110.37	50% 20101-20430 (40531)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 50.5¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$1.35	51% 23310-22121 (45431)
└ ŠK Slovan Bratislava leg	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 50.5¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$44.46
└ LASK Linz leg	LASK Linzavg 48¢	$780.41	$813.36	+$43.11
P1 P1kaso	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 51.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$30	63% 763-457 (1220)
AN AnonymousUsername	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 50.3¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$17.53	71% 6977-2786 (9763)
CA Cannae	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 50¢	$642.25	$629.41	-$6.42	53% 16356-14531 (30887)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	LASK Linzavg 50.2¢	$518.35	$501.04	-$7.99	48% 14300-15778 (30078)
└ LASK Linz leg	LASK Linzavg 50.2¢	$299.16	$294.9	-$4.27
└ ŠK Slovan Bratislava leg	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 51.3¢	$209.43	$206.15	-$3.73
SE sentrio	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 49.1¢	$101.8	$104.67	+$2.87	50% 25206-24908 (50114)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	LASK Linzavg 51¢	$64.77	$63.5	-$0.63	53% 874-763 (1637)
GH ghorrock<$100	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 50.5¢	$29.13	$28.26	-$0.58	57% 17905-13394 (31299)
nigiri99<$100	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 56¢	$28.56	$25.76	-$2.81	46% 8209-9573 (17782)
PR predictionlegend<$100	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 49¢	$4.8	$4.95	+$0.15	32% 30-63 (93)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	ŠK Slovan Bratislavaavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.45	-$0.05	52% 8419-7683 (16102)

omnibus-076daaCTR

LASK Linz

Invested

$8,268.24

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$110.37

Record

50%

20101-20430 (40531)

FlaznorpARB<$100

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$3,018.14

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$1.35

Record

51%

23310-22121 (45431)

Both legs:

ŠK Slovan Bratislava$2,262.250.5¢-$44.46

LASK Linz$780.4148¢+$43.11

P1kaso

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$1,545

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$30

Record

63%

763-457 (1220)

AnonymousUsername

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$1,161.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$17.53

Record

71%

6977-2786 (9763)

Cannae

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$642.25

Value

$629.41

PnL

-$6.42

Record

53%

16356-14531 (30887)

38791873984189ARB<$100

LASK Linz

Invested

$518.35

Value

$501.04

PnL

-$7.99

Record

48%

14300-15778 (30078)

Both legs:

LASK Linz$299.1650.2¢-$4.27

ŠK Slovan Bratislava$209.4351.3¢-$3.73

sentrio

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$101.8

Value

$104.67

PnL

+$2.87

Record

50%

25206-24908 (50114)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

LASK Linz

Invested

$64.77

Value

$63.5

PnL

-$0.63

Record

53%

874-763 (1637)

ghorrock<$100

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$29.13

Value

$28.26

PnL

-$0.58

Record

57%

17905-13394 (31299)

nigiri99<$100

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$28.56

Value

$25.76

PnL

-$2.81

Record

46%

8209-9573 (17782)

predictionlegend<$100

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

32%

30-63 (93)

ameisgoat11<$100

ŠK Slovan Bratislava

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

8419-7683 (16102)

Research grade

NeutralLASK Linz at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

LASK Linz

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors ŠK Slovan Bratislava 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on LASK Linz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleŠK Slovan Bratislava 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpŠK Slovan Bratislava 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrŠK Slovan Bratislava 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedŠK Slovan Bratislava 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000ŠK Slovan Bratislava 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LASK Linz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.