Will LASK Linz vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava end in a draw?

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$26.5

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 99.4¢

+13% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares7,982

Combined PnL+$146.73

Yes7 traders

Total Value$603.91

Total Shares4,440

Combined PnL-$173.23

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 89.1¢	$2.6K	$2.8K	+$153.1	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
XW xwingboy	Noavg 84.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$27.9	64% 309-172 (481)
FE ferdinand2	Noavg 80¢	$46.8	$597.14	+$25.03	48% 6154-6562 (12716)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 94¢	$560.86	$566.78	+$6.36	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.8¢	$460.16	$461.56	+$1.4	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$376.78	$387.01	+$10.22	53% 16384-14558 (30942)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16¢	$257.09	$265.13	+$8.03
└ No leg	Noavg 82¢	$119.69	$121.88	+$2.19
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 99¢	$305.6	$285.89	-$19.71	61% 13937-8970 (22907)
P1 P1kasoCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$699.95	$221.61	-$123.81	63% 763-457 (1220)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$157.84	$151.48	-$6.36	56% 942-736 (1678)
NO NotJump	Noavg 88.6¢	$143.94	$147.06	+$3.12	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$180.8	$141.55	-$39.25	53% 916-813 (1729)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 83¢	$142.32	$141.46	-$0.86	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
HRTrading	Noavg 80¢	$104.72	$109.3	+$4.58	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 87¢	$87	$88.5	+$1.5	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$90.2	$86.56	-$3.64	52% 830-771 (1601)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$61.33	$61.36	+$0.03	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.18	+$0.08	49% 3261-3353 (6614)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.64	$1.54	-$0.05	71% 6981-2792 (9773)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.08	$0.97	-$0.11	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$0.22	$0.2	-$0.02	53% 2336-2055 (4391)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,649.22

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$153.1

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

xwingboy

Invested

$2,016

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$27.9

Record

64%

309-172 (481)

ferdinand2

Invested

$46.8

Value

$597.14

PnL

+$25.03

Record

48%

6154-6562 (12716)

38791873984189

Invested

$560.86

Value

$566.78

PnL

+$6.36

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

SnakeBall

Invested

$460.16

Value

$461.56

PnL

+$1.4

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$376.78

Value

$387.01

PnL

+$10.22

Record

53%

16384-14558 (30942)

Both legs:

Yes$257.0916¢+$8.03

No$119.6982¢+$2.19

Lilybaeum

Invested

$305.6

Value

$285.89

PnL

-$19.71

Record

61%

13937-8970 (22907)

P1kasoCTR

Yes

Invested

$699.95

Value

$221.61

PnL

-$123.81

Record

63%

763-457 (1220)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$157.84

Value

$151.48

PnL

-$6.36

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

NotJump

Invested

$143.94

Value

$147.06

PnL

+$3.12

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$180.8

Value

$141.55

PnL

-$39.25

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$142.32

Value

$141.46

PnL

-$0.86

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

HRTrading

Invested

$104.72

Value

$109.3

PnL

+$4.58

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$87

Value

$88.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.2

Value

$86.56

PnL

-$3.64

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$61.33

Value

$61.36

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.18

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

3261-3353 (6614)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0.05

Record

71%

6981-2792 (9773)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.11

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.02

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.