Galatasaray SK vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$1.8K
$17.72
48.2¢ → 50.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+27 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 52¢ | $829.95 | $805.58 | -$24.36 | 51% 21013-19995 (41008) |
 nigiri99 | Overavg 48¢ | $502.08 | $528.23 | +$26.15 | 46% 8114-9455 (17569) |
IC ic4cream | Overavg 48¢ | $599.39 | $302.69 | +$14.99 | 59% 2670-1878 (4548) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 49.9¢ | $225.41 | $113.83 | +$1.41 | 50% 26673-26580 (53253) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 50.6¢ | $37.91 | $36.72 | -$1.2 | 58% 43911-31950 (75861) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $9.83 | $10.56 | +$0.73 | 55% 1827-1515 (3342) |
Invested
$829.95
Value
$805.58
PnL
-$24.36
Record
51%
21013-19995 (41008)
nigiri99Invested
$502.08
Value
$528.23
PnL
+$26.15
Record
46%
8114-9455 (17569)
Invested
$599.39
Value
$302.69
PnL
+$14.99
Record
59%
2670-1878 (4548)
Invested
$225.41
Value
$113.83
PnL
+$1.41
Record
50%
26673-26580 (53253)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$37.91
Value
$36.72
PnL
-$1.2
Record
58%
43911-31950 (75861)
Invested
$9.83
Value
$10.56
PnL
+$0.73
Record
55%
1827-1515 (3342)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.