VfB Stuttgart leading at halftime?
5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 38%
$7.5K
$468.8
87.7¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-1 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
10% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 90.4¢ | $2.9K | $3.2K | +$302.65 | 53% 59038-51355 (110393) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 92¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$42.09 | 50% 27298-27227 (54525) |
 nigiri99 | Noavg 74¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$13.97 | 46% 8245-9621 (17866) |
ZX zxc368 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $999 | $999.5 | +$0.5 | 98% 13990-239 (14229) |
RO Rocky31 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $375.89 | $494.75 | +$118.86 | 75% 1817-620 (2437) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $450.27 | $309.95 | +$16.68 | 58% 44610-32488 (77098) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $190.35 | $197.4 | +$7.05 | 48% 14393-15903 (30296) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 28¢ | $101.92 | $101.92 | -$1.82 | 52% 830-771 (1601) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $96.12 | $99.68 | +$1.78 | 51% 23399-22168 (45567) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $47.57 | $45.92 | -$1.65 | 56% 942-736 (1678) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $27.99 | $27.02 | -$0.97 | 54% 906-787 (1693) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $9.18 | $9.52 | +$0.34 | 49% 14107-14668 (28775) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $2.84 | $0.1 | -$2.73 | 50% 35607-35082 (70689) |
RN1Invested
$2,873.76
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$302.65
Record
53%
59038-51355 (110393)
Invested
$1,007.16
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$42.09
Record
50%
27298-27227 (54525)
nigiri99Invested
$1,049.11
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$13.97
Record
46%
8245-9621 (17866)
Invested
$999
Value
$999.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
98%
13990-239 (14229)
Invested
$375.89
Value
$494.75
PnL
+$118.86
Record
75%
1817-620 (2437)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$450.27
Value
$309.95
PnL
+$16.68
Record
58%
44610-32488 (77098)
Invested
$190.35
Value
$197.4
PnL
+$7.05
Record
48%
14393-15903 (30296)
Invested
$101.92
Value
$101.92
PnL
-$1.82
Record
52%
830-771 (1601)
Invested
$96.12
Value
$99.68
PnL
+$1.78
Record
51%
23399-22168 (45567)
Invested
$47.57
Value
$45.92
PnL
-$1.65
Record
56%
942-736 (1678)
Invested
$27.99
Value
$27.02
PnL
-$0.97
Record
54%
906-787 (1693)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$9.52
PnL
+$0.34
Record
49%
14107-14668 (28775)
Invested
$2.84
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$2.73
Record
50%
35607-35082 (70689)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.