Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-11-03?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$6.8K
$25.6
55.7¢ → 56.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 55.6¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$3.65 | 51% 17602-16613 (34215) |
TN tnlCTR | Yesavg 44¢ | $1.4K | $2.2K | +$25.91 | 51% 518-491 (1009) |
MR MrDouche | Noavg 56¢ | $853.36 | $860.98 | +$7.62 | 82% 1695-370 (2065) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $314.82 | $624.4 | +$4.89 | 47% 12949-14528 (27477) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55¢ | $437.17 | $449.1 | +$6.91 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44¢ | $177.32 | $175.31 | -$2.01 | |
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Yesavg 44¢ | $285.11 | $281.87 | -$3.24 | 65% 1808-987 (2795) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $84.7 | $84.7 | -$0.76 | 53% 6367-5753 (12120) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $23.74 | $23.49 | -$0.25 | 53% 2312-2036 (4348) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.79 | $2.77 | -$0.02 | 50% 19810-20152 (39962) |
Invested
$2,706.89
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$3.65
Record
51%
17602-16613 (34215)
Invested
$1,361.81
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$25.91
Record
51%
518-491 (1009)
Invested
$853.36
Value
$860.98
PnL
+$7.62
Record
82%
1695-370 (2065)
Invested
$314.82
Value
$624.4
PnL
+$4.89
Record
47%
12949-14528 (27477)
Both legs:
Invested
$285.11
Value
$281.87
PnL
-$3.24
Record
65%
1808-987 (2795)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$84.7
Value
$84.7
PnL
-$0.76
Record
53%
6367-5753 (12120)
Invested
$23.74
Value
$23.49
PnL
-$0.25
Record
53%
2312-2036 (4348)
Invested
$2.79
Value
$2.77
PnL
-$0.02
Record
50%
19810-20152 (39962)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.