Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-11-03?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 75¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

-$119.91

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 74.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares10,555

Combined PnL-$121

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares11,269

Combined PnL+$1.08

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 74¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$61.81	71% 6976-2782 (9758)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 75¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$50.96	64% 1842-1020 (2862)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 25.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$5.38	51% 23180-22031 (45211)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$3.5K	$893.07	-$17.51	52% 809-738 (1547)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 73.9¢	$698.44	$690.1	-$8.34	48% 14253-15743 (29996)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 25.1¢	$1.9K	$481.35	+$6.52	53% 810-720 (1530)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$234.22	$238.9	+$4.68	55% 827-679 (1506)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$37.93	$38.69	+$0.76	—
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$22.35	$22.47	+$0.12	58% 44366-32277 (76643)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$11	$13	+$1.25	53% 16356-14530 (30886)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$2.08	$2.08	+$0	53% 2336-2055 (4391)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$4,573.93

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$61.81

Record

71%

6976-2782 (9758)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$2,582.17

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$50.96

Record

64%

1842-1020 (2862)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,224.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$5.38

Record

51%

23180-22031 (45211)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,502.22

Value

$893.07

PnL

-$17.51

Record

52%

809-738 (1547)

38791873984189

Invested

$698.44

Value

$690.1

PnL

-$8.34

Record

48%

14253-15743 (29996)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,887.66

Value

$481.35

PnL

+$6.52

Record

53%

810-720 (1530)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$234.22

Value

$238.9

PnL

+$4.68

Record

55%

827-679 (1506)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.93

Value

$38.69

PnL

+$0.76

Record

—

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$22.35

Value

$22.47

PnL

+$0.12

Record

58%

44366-32277 (76643)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$13

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

16356-14530 (30886)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.08

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.