Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Fenerbahçe SK (89%) · Fenerbahçe SK at 56¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 4

Liverpool FC45¢Fenerbahçe SK55¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fenerbahçe SK

Consensus Traders

Fenerbahçe SK 89%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.9K

Combined PnL

$13.91

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 55.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralFenerbahçe SK at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahçe SK

8 of 9 top traders (89%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Liverpool FC45%

Fenerbahçe SK56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fenerbahçe SK8 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares11,103

Combined PnL+$20.41

Liverpool FC1 trader

Total Value$232.32

Total Shares528

Combined PnL-$6.5

Fenerbahçe SK — 89%Liverpool FC — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahçe SK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFenerbahçe SK 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrFenerbahçe SK 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedFenerbahçe SK 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Fenerbahçe SK 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Fenerbahçe SKavg 55.1¢	$8.8K	$8.9K	+$44.89	71% 7095-2847 (9942)
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 55.1¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$46.22
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 44.5¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$1.33
FL Flaznorp	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56.3¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$17.85	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Liverpool FCavg 44¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$16.06	50% 27765-27628 (55393)
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 44¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$13.61
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$29.67
SE sentrioARB<$100	Liverpool FCavg 46¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$35.05	50% 25480-25186 (50666)
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 46¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$34.35
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 55.6¢	$466.09	$465.4	-$0.69
DV dv-pm	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56¢	$942.37	$950.79	+$8.42	49% 3292-3422 (6714)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56¢	$784.25	$703.5	-$3.47	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
└ Fenerbahçe SK leg	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56¢	$360.08	$356.87	-$3.22
└ Liverpool FC leg	Liverpool FCavg 44.5¢	$346.89	$346.64	-$0.25
VeryLucky888	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56.1¢	$562.26	$491.56	-$7.6	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
CA Cannae	Fenerbahçe SKavg 55.5¢	$244.24	$248.82	+$4.58	53% 16515-14663 (31178)
nigiri99CTR	Liverpool FCavg 45.2¢	$238.82	$232.32	-$6.5	46% 8405-9865 (18270)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56¢	$224	$226	+$2	51% 1789-1707 (3496)
HRTrading	Fenerbahçe SKavg 56.5¢	$115.51	$115.46	-$0.05	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
GH ghorrock	Fenerbahçe SKavg 57.3¢	$145.32	$76.82	-$4.76	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Fenerbahçe SKavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.8	-$0.03	52% 8574-7820 (16394)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$8,828.63

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$44.89

Record

71%

7095-2847 (9942)

Both legs:

Fenerbahçe SK$6,393.1655.1¢+$46.22

Liverpool FC$2,435.4744.5¢-$1.33

Flaznorp

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$4,146.02

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$17.85

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$2,279.71

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$16.06

Record

50%

27765-27628 (55393)

Both legs:

Liverpool FC$1,19844¢+$13.61

Fenerbahçe SK$1,081.7156¢-$29.67

sentrioARB<$100

Liverpool FC

Invested

$1,519.61

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$35.05

Record

50%

25480-25186 (50666)

Both legs:

Liverpool FC$1,053.5246¢-$34.35

Fenerbahçe SK$466.0955.6¢-$0.69

dv-pm

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$942.37

Value

$950.79

PnL

+$8.42

Record

49%

3292-3422 (6714)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$784.25

Value

$703.5

PnL

-$3.47

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

Both legs:

Fenerbahçe SK$360.0856¢-$3.22

Liverpool FC$346.8944.5¢-$0.25

VeryLucky888

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$562.26

Value

$491.56

PnL

-$7.6

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

Cannae

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$244.24

Value

$248.82

PnL

+$4.58

Record

53%

16515-14663 (31178)

nigiri99CTR

Liverpool FC

Invested

$238.82

Value

$232.32

PnL

-$6.5

Record

46%

8405-9865 (18270)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$224

Value

$226

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1789-1707 (3496)

HRTrading

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$115.51

Value

$115.46

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

ghorrock

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$145.32

Value

$76.82

PnL

-$4.76

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

ameisgoat11<$100

Fenerbahçe SK

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

8574-7820 (16394)

Research grade

NeutralFenerbahçe SK at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Fenerbahçe SK

8 of 9 top traders (89%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Fenerbahçe SK. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFenerbahçe SK 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrFenerbahçe SK 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedFenerbahçe SK 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Fenerbahçe SK 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fenerbahçe SK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.