FC Barcelona vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 54¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$70.24

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 53.5¢

-2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,298

Combined PnL+$0.58

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,080

Combined PnL+$69.66

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 46.5¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	+$13.22	51% 23358-22138 (45496)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$13.22
us391CTR	Overavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0	51% 1767-1725 (3492)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Underavg 54¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$43.28	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 54¢	$820.48	$844.4	+$29.98	58% 44520-32419 (76939)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$722.71	$707.32	-$15.39	50% 27241-27150 (54391)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$573.91	$560.8	-$13.11
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.9¢	$148.8	$146.52	-$2.28
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 54.9¢	$498.1	$491.82	-$6.28	48% 14349-15848 (30197)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.9¢	$385.6	$375.57	-$10.03
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$112.5	$116.25	+$3.75
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 56¢	$304.26	$304.26	+$2.72	71% 6979-2788 (9767)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 56¢	$198.44	$193.12	-$5.32	50% 35477-34953 (70430)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 55¢	$161.74	$160.2	-$1.54	53% 883-772 (1655)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 56¢	$84.84	$84.84	-$0	51% 7310-7059 (14369)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 43.6¢	$47.61	$48.05	-$0.1	45% 13592-16514 (30106)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 56¢	$42.56	$42.84	+$0.41	52% 808-754 (1562)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 42.4¢	$25	$11.38	+$0.78	53% 898-794 (1692)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.8	+$0.13	45% 10597-12769 (23366)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0	52% 8430-7691 (16121)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.7	$2.64	-$0.09	50% 7346-7476 (14822)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,199.04

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$13.22

Record

51%

23358-22138 (45496)

Both legs:

Over$1,717.2846.5¢+$0

Under$1,483.7156¢+$13.22

us391CTR

Over

Invested

$1,389.48

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1767-1725 (3492)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Under

Invested

$1,168.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$43.28

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$820.48

Value

$844.4

PnL

+$29.98

Record

58%

44520-32419 (76939)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$722.71

Value

$707.32

PnL

-$15.39

Record

50%

27241-27150 (54391)

Both legs:

Over$573.9145¢-$13.11

Under$148.856.9¢-$2.28

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$498.1

Value

$491.82

PnL

-$6.28

Record

48%

14349-15848 (30197)

Both legs:

Under$385.654.9¢-$10.03

Over$112.545¢+$3.75

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$304.26

Value

$304.26

PnL

+$2.72

Record

71%

6979-2788 (9767)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$198.44

Value

$193.12

PnL

-$5.32

Record

50%

35477-34953 (70430)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$161.74

Value

$160.2

PnL

-$1.54

Record

53%

883-772 (1655)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$84.84

Value

$84.84

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

7310-7059 (14369)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.61

Value

$48.05

PnL

-$0.1

Record

45%

13592-16514 (30106)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$42.56

Value

$42.84

PnL

+$0.41

Record

52%

808-754 (1562)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25

Value

$11.38

PnL

+$0.78

Record

53%

898-794 (1692)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.13

Record

45%

10597-12769 (23366)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

8430-7691 (16121)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

7346-7476 (14822)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.