FC Barcelona vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 65¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

Over65¢Under35¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$30.24

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 64.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,618

Combined PnL+$61.21

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,910

Combined PnL-$30.97

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MR MrBently	Overavg 63¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$22.23	53% 566-508 (1074)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 37.1¢	$820.16	$805.89	-$14.27	51% 23065-21883 (44948)
JU justtryingtosurvive	Overavg 53¢	$177.69	$214.56	+$38.56	— 4-0 (4)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$98.15	$95.42	-$2.73	58% 44275-32205 (76480)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Underavg 35.9¢	$70.54	$69.71	-$0.83	72% 6967-2770 (9737)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$50.29	$37.99	-$12.3	54% 489-425 (914)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 64¢	$35.63	$35.91	+$0.28	50% 26997-26925 (53922)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 36.9¢	$58.58	$20.8	-$0.81	57% 17750-13286 (31036)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 61¢	$2.63	$2.78	+$0.15	50% 35350-34790 (70140)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.75	-$0.03	52% 8374-7652 (16026)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$1,400.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$22.23

Record

53%

566-508 (1074)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$820.16

Value

$805.89

PnL

-$14.27

Record

51%

23065-21883 (44948)

justtryingtosurvive

Over

Invested

$177.69

Value

$214.56

PnL

+$38.56

Record

—

4-0 (4)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$98.15

Value

$95.42

PnL

-$2.73

Record

58%

44275-32205 (76480)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.54

Value

$69.71

PnL

-$0.83

Record

72%

6967-2770 (9737)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.29

Value

$37.99

PnL

-$12.3

Record

54%

489-425 (914)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$35.63

Value

$35.91

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

26997-26925 (53922)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.58

Value

$20.8

PnL

-$0.81

Record

57%

17750-13286 (31036)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$2.63

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

35350-34790 (70140)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

8374-7652 (16026)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.