FC Barcelona vs. Aston Villa FC: Aston Villa FC O/U 1.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 69¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$6.5K
$6.05
68¢ → 68.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 68¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$43.34 | 51% 17604-16613 (34217) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR | Overavg 32¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$60 | 73% 3620-1337 (4957) |
FE ferdinand2 | Underavg 68¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$21.34 | 51% 991-958 (1949) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 68¢ | $108.09 | $108.12 | +$1.62 | 53% 6368-5753 (12121) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $4.18 | $3.93 | -$0.25 | 53% 8070-7281 (15351) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $2.64 | $2.64 | +$0 | 57% 17234-12896 (30130) |
Invested
$2,975.55
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$43.34
Record
51%
17604-16613 (34217)
Invested
$1,919.96
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$60
Record
73%
3620-1337 (4957)
Invested
$1,450.88
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$21.34
Record
51%
991-958 (1949)
HRTradingInvested
$108.09
Value
$108.12
PnL
+$1.62
Record
53%
6368-5753 (12121)
Invested
$4.18
Value
$3.93
PnL
-$0.25
Record
53%
8070-7281 (15351)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$2.64
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
17234-12896 (30130)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.