Spread: FC Barcelona (-3.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Aston Villa FC (36%) · Aston Villa FC at 79¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3

FC Barcelona22¢Aston Villa FC78¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aston Villa FC

Consensus Traders

Aston Villa FC 36%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

-$61.86

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 78.5¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAston Villa FC at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aston Villa FC

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FC Barcelona22%

Aston Villa FC79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aston Villa FC4 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares8,989

Combined PnL-$64.52

FC Barcelona7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares9,484

Combined PnL+$2.66

Aston Villa FC — 36%FC Barcelona — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Aston Villa FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Barcelona 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperAston Villa FC 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAston Villa FC 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000FC Barcelona 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GG ggA11xcr	Aston Villa FCavg 79.8¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	-$68.2	— 3-0 (3)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	FC Barcelonaavg 21¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$5.1	50% 27272-27188 (54460)
FL Flaznorp	Aston Villa FCavg 79¢	$348.89	$349.09	+$2.41	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 21¢	$78.96	$78.96	-$1.88	52% 825-766 (1591)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 78¢	$53.82	$54.51	+$0.69	58% 30450-22247 (52697)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 21.8¢	$51.3	$49.35	-$1.95	54% 901-783 (1684)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 20¢	$35.3	$37.07	+$1.77	40% 1112-1689 (2801)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 21.7¢	$30.33	$29.29	-$0.34	53% 913-807 (1720)
GH ghorrock<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 78¢	$28.26	$28.84	+$0.58	58% 18577-13713 (32290)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 21¢	$5.66	$5.66	-$0	50% 4916-4829 (9745)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 23¢	$0.6	$0.55	-$0.04	50% 35605-35075 (70680)

ggA11xcr

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$6,747.43

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$68.2

Record

—

3-0 (3)

GoalLineGhostCTR

FC Barcelona

Invested

$1,918.67

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$5.1

Record

50%

27272-27188 (54460)

Flaznorp

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$348.89

Value

$349.09

PnL

+$2.41

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$78.96

Value

$78.96

PnL

-$1.88

Record

52%

825-766 (1591)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$53.82

Value

$54.51

PnL

+$0.69

Record

58%

30450-22247 (52697)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$51.3

Value

$49.35

PnL

-$1.95

Record

54%

901-783 (1684)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$35.3

Value

$37.07

PnL

+$1.77

Record

40%

1112-1689 (2801)

VenusianCTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$30.33

Value

$29.29

PnL

-$0.34

Record

53%

913-807 (1720)

ghorrock<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$28.26

Value

$28.84

PnL

+$0.58

Record

58%

18577-13713 (32290)

hi774cCTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$5.66

Value

$5.66

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

4916-4829 (9745)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

35605-35075 (70680)

Research grade

NeutralAston Villa FC at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aston Villa FC

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Aston Villa FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFC Barcelona 50% · 2

Diverging

sniperAston Villa FC 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAston Villa FC 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000FC Barcelona 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aston Villa FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.