Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold FC Barcelona (38%) · FC Barcelona at 97¢ · $63K held · ends Nov 3

Aston Villa FC3¢FC Barcelona97¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FC Barcelona

Consensus Traders

FC Barcelona 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.5K

Combined PnL

-$55.18

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 96.8¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFC Barcelona at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FC Barcelona

6 of 16 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aston Villa FC3%

FC Barcelona97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FC Barcelona6 traders

Total Value$60.1K

Total Shares61,987

Combined PnL-$98.95

Aston Villa FC10 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares46,242

Combined PnL+$43.77

FC Barcelona — 38%Aston Villa FC — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on FC Barcelona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FC Barcelona) and the top 1000 (15 on Aston Villa FC) disagree here.

whaleFC Barcelona 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrAston Villa FC 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedFC Barcelona 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aston Villa FC 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	FC Barcelonaavg 97¢	$43.7K	$43.7K	-$50.19	53% 2133-1869 (4002)
SU suntori	FC Barcelonaavg 97.2¢	$10.5K	$10.4K	-$50.11	45% 13628-16553 (30181)
BU BunCaCham	FC Barcelonaavg 96.9¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$3.96	97% 2609-72 (2681)
38 38791873984189	FC Barcelonaavg 96.5¢	$1.0K	$758.17	+$4.04	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Aston Villa FCavg 3¢	$671.15	$708.35	+$37.2	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 3¢	$595.67	$602.25	+$6.58	50% 27272-27188 (54460)
└ Aston Villa FC leg	Aston Villa FCavg 3¢	$317	$322.28	+$5.28
└ FC Barcelona leg	FC Barcelonaavg 96.5¢	$278.67	$279.97	+$1.3
CA CannaeARB<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 96.4¢	$413.05	$419.8	+$7.41	53% 16379-14547 (30926)
└ FC Barcelona leg	FC Barcelonaavg 96.4¢	$318.06	$319.29	+$1.89
└ Aston Villa FC leg	Aston Villa FCavg 3¢	$94.99	$100.5	+$5.52
LI LightParadoxCTR	Aston Villa FCavg 3.3¢	$240.18	$243.13	+$2.95	54% 901-783 (1684)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Aston Villa FCavg 2.9¢	$175.95	$193.2	+$17.25	49% 14105-14667 (28772)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Aston Villa FCavg 3¢	$153.98	$145.07	-$8.91	45% 10626-12799 (23425)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 2.9¢	$72	$69.52	-$2.48	50% 4916-4829 (9745)
SE sentrio<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 96.4¢	$55.68	$56.6	+$1	50% 25241-24955 (50196)
GH ghorrock<$100	FC Barcelonaavg 96.3¢	$43.95	$44.38	+$0.27	58% 18577-13713 (32290)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 3.1¢	$40.93	$37.08	-$0.54	48% 6153-6559 (12712)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 3.1¢	$12.6	$11.26	-$1.35	51% 7336-7083 (14419)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 3¢	$7.02	$6.55	+$0.12	56% 935-734 (1669)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 3.2¢	$4.04	$3.54	-$0.19	52% 825-766 (1591)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Aston Villa FCavg 3.5¢	$3.09	$2.81	-$0.29	51% 6217-5958 (12175)

0F62

FC Barcelona

Invested

$43,716.13

Value

$43.7K

PnL

-$50.19

Record

53%

2133-1869 (4002)

suntori

FC Barcelona

Invested

$10,493.78

Value

$10.4K

PnL

-$50.11

Record

45%

13628-16553 (30181)

BunCaCham

FC Barcelona

Invested

$5,106.03

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$3.96

Record

97%

2609-72 (2681)

38791873984189

FC Barcelona

Invested

$1,012.97

Value

$758.17

PnL

+$4.04

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

FlaznorpCTR

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$671.15

Value

$708.35

PnL

+$37.2

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$595.67

Value

$602.25

PnL

+$6.58

Record

50%

27272-27188 (54460)

Both legs:

Aston Villa FC$3173¢+$5.28

FC Barcelona$278.6796.5¢+$1.3

CannaeARB<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$413.05

Value

$419.8

PnL

+$7.41

Record

53%

16379-14547 (30926)

Both legs:

FC Barcelona$318.0696.4¢+$1.89

Aston Villa FC$94.993¢+$5.52

LightParadoxCTR

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$240.18

Value

$243.13

PnL

+$2.95

Record

54%

901-783 (1684)

LuckyLooCTR

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$175.95

Value

$193.2

PnL

+$17.25

Record

49%

14105-14667 (28772)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$153.98

Value

$145.07

PnL

-$8.91

Record

45%

10626-12799 (23425)

hi774cCTR<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$72

Value

$69.52

PnL

-$2.48

Record

50%

4916-4829 (9745)

sentrio<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$55.68

Value

$56.6

PnL

+$1

Record

50%

25241-24955 (50196)

ghorrock<$100

FC Barcelona

Invested

$43.95

Value

$44.38

PnL

+$0.27

Record

58%

18577-13713 (32290)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$40.93

Value

$37.08

PnL

-$0.54

Record

48%

6153-6559 (12712)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$12.6

Value

$11.26

PnL

-$1.35

Record

51%

7336-7083 (14419)

LimousinCTR<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$7.02

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$0.12

Record

56%

935-734 (1669)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$4.04

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$0.19

Record

52%

825-766 (1591)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Aston Villa FC

Invested

$3.09

Value

$2.81

PnL

-$0.29

Record

51%

6217-5958 (12175)

Research grade

NeutralFC Barcelona at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FC Barcelona

6 of 16 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on FC Barcelona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FC Barcelona) and the top 1000 (15 on Aston Villa FC) disagree here.

whaleFC Barcelona 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrAston Villa FC 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedFC Barcelona 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aston Villa FC 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FC Barcelona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.