Aston Villa FC leading at halftime?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 87¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$6.3K
-$30.62
87¢ → 87¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 87¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$0 | 58% 44437-32355 (76792) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 87¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$8.66 | 51% 23350-22134 (45484) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 87¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0 | 48% 14339-15840 (30179) |
GG ggA11xcrCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $540.78 | $561.58 | +$0.13 | — 3-0 (3) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 13.6¢ | $523.36 | $501.54 | -$21.82 | 56% 915-719 (1634) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 87¢ | $106.14 | $106.14 | +$0 | 53% 883-772 (1655) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $68.73 | $68.34 | -$0.39 | 51% 7310-7059 (14369) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.49 | $1.68 | +$0.12 | 45% 10597-12769 (23366) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,175
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
44437-32355 (76792)
Invested
$1,508.3
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$8.66
Record
51%
23350-22134 (45484)
Invested
$1,411.14
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
14339-15840 (30179)
Invested
$540.78
Value
$561.58
PnL
+$0.13
Record
—
3-0 (3)
Invested
$523.36
Value
$501.54
PnL
-$21.82
Record
56%
915-719 (1634)
Invested
$106.14
Value
$106.14
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
883-772 (1655)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$68.73
Value
$68.34
PnL
-$0.39
Record
51%
7310-7059 (14369)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$1.68
PnL
+$0.12
Record
45%
10597-12769 (23366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.