Will FC Barcelona vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$26.17

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 87.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,331

Combined PnL+$17.45

Yes7 traders

Total Value$321.83

Total Shares2,682

Combined PnL+$8.72

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 87¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$9.89	71% 6979-2788 (9767)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 87¢	$961.1	$961.1	+$5.56	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 12¢	$180	$180	+$7.5	58% 44437-32355 (76792)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 87¢	$419.21	$125.87	+$0.72	48% 14349-15848 (30197)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$96.49	$96.49	+$4.02	51% 23350-22134 (45484)
macrosteaks<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$47.1	$47.85	+$1.03	55% 3434-2832 (6266)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87¢	$43.71	$43.71	+$0.25	57% 18305-13557 (31862)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$27.43	$25.32	-$2.11	56% 915-719 (1634)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$12.48	$11.52	-$0.48	52% 808-754 (1562)
0X 0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$6.05	$5.58	-$0.23	15% 1112-6328 (7440)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$2.32	$2.32	+$0	53% 16363-14532 (30895)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.6	$0.6	+$0.03	52% 8430-7691 (16121)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$1,720.84

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$9.89

Record

71%

6979-2788 (9767)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$961.1

Value

$961.1

PnL

+$5.56

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$180

Value

$180

PnL

+$7.5

Record

58%

44437-32355 (76792)

38791873984189

Invested

$419.21

Value

$125.87

PnL

+$0.72

Record

48%

14349-15848 (30197)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.49

Value

$96.49

PnL

+$4.02

Record

51%

23350-22134 (45484)

macrosteaks<$100

Invested

$47.1

Value

$47.85

PnL

+$1.03

Record

55%

3434-2832 (6266)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$43.71

Value

$43.71

PnL

+$0.25

Record

57%

18305-13557 (31862)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.43

Value

$25.32

PnL

-$2.11

Record

56%

915-719 (1634)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.48

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$0.48

Record

52%

808-754 (1562)

0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.05

Value

$5.58

PnL

-$0.23

Record

15%

1112-6328 (7440)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.32

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

16363-14532 (30895)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

8430-7691 (16121)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.