Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-11-03?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 91¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$1.4K
$2.95
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $910.51 | $906.58 | -$3.93 | 58% 43600-31711 (75311) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 9¢ | $342.37 | $361.39 | +$19.02 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $47.45 | $50.08 | +$2.64 | 51% 997-961 (1958) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $42.39 | $25.48 | -$16.91 | 47% 13002-14566 (27568) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $21.25 | $22.43 | +$1.18 | 53% 6371-5759 (12130) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $17.1 | $17.1 | +$0.95 | 72% 6934-2740 (9674) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$910.51
Value
$906.58
PnL
-$3.93
Record
58%
43600-31711 (75311)
Invested
$342.37
Value
$361.39
PnL
+$19.02
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Invested
$47.45
Value
$50.08
PnL
+$2.64
Record
51%
997-961 (1958)
Invested
$42.39
Value
$25.48
PnL
-$16.91
Record
47%
13002-14566 (27568)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$21.25
Value
$22.43
PnL
+$1.18
Record
53%
6371-5759 (12130)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$17.1
PnL
+$0.95
Record
72%
6934-2740 (9674)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.