Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-11-04?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$13.1

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 56.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,533

Combined PnL-$16.92

No4 traders

Total Value$332.35

Total Shares764

Combined PnL+$3.82

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Yesavg 57¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$17.53	73% 3620-1337 (4957)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 43.1¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$22.94	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
└ No leg	Noavg 43.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$12.52
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$381.96	$392.45	+$10.42
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 43¢	$238.65	$241.43	+$2.78	72% 6934-2740 (9674)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$59.88	$60.58	+$0.7	51% 997-961 (1958)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$20.54	$20.78	+$0.24	53% 16258-14439 (30697)
IW iWasEnough<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$13.18	$13.79	+$0.61	53% 8072-7288 (15360)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$9.46	$9.57	+$0.11	53% 6371-5759 (12130)

JAMJAMJAM4

Yes

Invested

$2,000.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$17.53

Record

73%

3620-1337 (4957)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,836.12

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$22.94

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

Both legs:

No$1,453.7943.1¢+$12.52

Yes$381.9655¢+$10.42

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$238.65

Value

$241.43

PnL

+$2.78

Record

72%

6934-2740 (9674)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$59.88

Value

$60.58

PnL

+$0.7

Record

51%

997-961 (1958)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$20.54

Value

$20.78

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

16258-14439 (30697)

iWasEnough<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.18

Value

$13.79

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

8072-7288 (15360)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$9.46

Value

$9.57

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.