Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-11-04?
9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 80¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 82%
$11.6K
-$26.5
79.4¢ → 79.5¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 79.8¢ | $7.5K | $7.4K | -$77.72 | 51% 24202-22938 (47140) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 77.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | +$31.71 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 79¢ | $975.67 | $985.02 | +$9.35 | 39% 1335-2099 (3434) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 79¢ | $943.1 | $951.92 | +$8.83 | 46% 1301-1520 (2821) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $569.73 | $542.6 | -$27.13 | 71% 7095-2847 (9942) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 78¢ | $333.24 | $337.51 | +$4.27 | 50% 36333-35815 (72148) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 78.9¢ | $269.69 | $270.18 | +$0.49 | 52% 1153-1075 (2228) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 77.8¢ | $42.19 | $27.57 | +$23.38 | 48% 59224-63218 (122442) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $23.22 | $23.33 | +$0.1 | 53% 16515-14663 (31178) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $11.08 | $11.22 | +$0.14 | 58% 19424-14279 (33703) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.95 | +$0.08 | 50% 25480-25186 (50666) |
Invested
$7,479.94
Value
$7.4K
PnL
-$77.72
Record
51%
24202-22938 (47140)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,065.44
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$31.71
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$975.67
Value
$985.02
PnL
+$9.35
Record
39%
1335-2099 (3434)
Invested
$943.1
Value
$951.92
PnL
+$8.83
Record
46%
1301-1520 (2821)
Invested
$569.73
Value
$542.6
PnL
-$27.13
Record
71%
7095-2847 (9942)
Invested
$333.24
Value
$337.51
PnL
+$4.27
Record
50%
36333-35815 (72148)
Invested
$269.69
Value
$270.18
PnL
+$0.49
Record
52%
1153-1075 (2228)
Invested
$42.19
Value
$27.57
PnL
+$23.38
Record
48%
59224-63218 (122442)
Invested
$23.22
Value
$23.33
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
16515-14663 (31178)
Invested
$11.08
Value
$11.22
PnL
+$0.14
Record
58%
19424-14279 (33703)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.95
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
25480-25186 (50666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.