FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Lille OSC: O/U 6.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3

Over1¢Under99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$108.54

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 99¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,597

Combined PnL-$277.46

Over3 traders

Total Value$194.32

Total Shares437

Combined PnL+$168.92

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 99.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$2.63	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 94.6¢	$691.24	$549.73	-$141.51	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 94¢	$328.31	$342.71	+$14.4	56% 7530-5969 (13499)
LI Limousin	Underavg 94.7¢	$312.51	$168.3	-$144.21	56% 942-736 (1678)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 6.3¢	$21.55	$168.07	+$146.52	52% 830-771 (1601)
0X 0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100	Overavg 5.4¢	$2.77	$25	+$22.22	15% 1116-6362 (7478)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 94.8¢	$18.98	$10.21	-$8.77	53% 916-813 (1729)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 2.5¢	$1.08	$1.25	+$0.17	50% 27298-27227 (54525)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,187.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$2.63

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$691.24

Value

$549.73

PnL

-$141.51

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$328.31

Value

$342.71

PnL

+$14.4

Record

56%

7530-5969 (13499)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$312.51

Value

$168.3

PnL

-$144.21

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$21.55

Value

$168.07

PnL

+$146.52

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.77

Value

$25

PnL

+$22.22

Record

15%

1116-6362 (7478)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$18.98

Value

$10.21

PnL

-$8.77

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.