Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Lille OSC (50%) · Lille OSC at 65¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

FK Bodø/Glimt36¢Lille OSC64¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lille OSC

Consensus Traders

Lille OSC 50%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$13

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 64.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLille OSC at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lille OSC

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FK Bodø/Glimt36%

Lille OSC65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lille OSC7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,596

Combined PnL-$71.34

FK Bodø/Glimt7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,963

Combined PnL+$58.34

Lille OSC — 50%FK Bodø/Glimt — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Lille OSC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFK Bodø/Glimt 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpLille OSC 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLille OSC 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Lille OSC 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Lille OSCavg 68¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$67.04	71% 6981-2790 (9771)
P1 P1kaso	Lille OSCavg 64.3¢	$964.99	$967.49	+$2.5	63% 763-457 (1220)
FL FlaznorpCTR	FK Bodø/Glimtavg 31.9¢	$690.03	$757.45	+$56.6	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
MA MadridTimeCTR	FK Bodø/Glimtavg 36.1¢	$396.65	$384.16	-$12.49	52% 825-766 (1591)
38 38791873984189	Lille OSCavg 65.6¢	$152.39	$148.73	-$3.66	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
FE ferdinand2CTR	FK Bodø/Glimtavg 31.8¢	$122.41	$134.79	+$10.46	48% 6153-6559 (12712)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Lille OSCavg 69¢	$86.43	$80.17	-$3.13	64% 1845-1027 (2872)
HRTradingCTR<$100	FK Bodø/Glimtavg 31.9¢	$43.02	$47.16	+$2.12	51% 7336-7083 (14419)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	FK Bodø/Glimtavg 34¢	$42.69	$43.98	+$1.29	45% 10626-12799 (23425)
GH ghorrock<$100	Lille OSCavg 68.2¢	$35.43	$35.21	+$0.63	58% 18577-13713 (32290)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	FK Bodø/Glimtavg 35¢	$13.66	$13.85	+$0.2	50% 27272-27188 (54460)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Lille OSCavg 70¢	$7.91	$7.23	-$0.51	92% 3024-259 (3283)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	FK Bodø/Glimtavg 34¢	$5.67	$5.83	+$0.17	50% 35605-35075 (70680)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lille OSCavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.2	-$0.13	52% 8449-7707 (16156)

AnonymousUsername

Lille OSC

Invested

$1,827.51

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$67.04

Record

71%

6981-2790 (9771)

P1kaso

Lille OSC

Invested

$964.99

Value

$967.49

PnL

+$2.5

Record

63%

763-457 (1220)

FlaznorpCTR

FK Bodø/Glimt

Invested

$690.03

Value

$757.45

PnL

+$56.6

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

MadridTimeCTR

FK Bodø/Glimt

Invested

$396.65

Value

$384.16

PnL

-$12.49

Record

52%

825-766 (1591)

38791873984189

Lille OSC

Invested

$152.39

Value

$148.73

PnL

-$3.66

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

ferdinand2CTR

FK Bodø/Glimt

Invested

$122.41

Value

$134.79

PnL

+$10.46

Record

48%

6153-6559 (12712)

darkumbreon88<$100

Lille OSC

Invested

$86.43

Value

$80.17

PnL

-$3.13

Record

64%

1845-1027 (2872)

HRTradingCTR<$100

FK Bodø/Glimt

Invested

$43.02

Value

$47.16

PnL

+$2.12

Record

51%

7336-7083 (14419)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

FK Bodø/Glimt

Invested

$42.69

Value

$43.98

PnL

+$1.29

Record

45%

10626-12799 (23425)

ghorrock<$100

Lille OSC

Invested

$35.43

Value

$35.21

PnL

+$0.63

Record

58%

18577-13713 (32290)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

FK Bodø/Glimt

Invested

$13.66

Value

$13.85

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

27272-27188 (54460)

thatsabing0<$100

Lille OSC

Invested

$7.91

Value

$7.23

PnL

-$0.51

Record

92%

3024-259 (3283)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

FK Bodø/Glimt

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.83

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

35605-35075 (70680)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lille OSC

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

8449-7707 (16156)

Research grade

NeutralLille OSC at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lille OSC

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Lille OSC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFK Bodø/Glimt 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpLille OSC 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrLille OSC 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Lille OSC 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lille OSC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.