Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold FK Bodø/Glimt (29%) · FK Bodø/Glimt at 97¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3

Lille OSC3¢FK Bodø/Glimt97¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FK Bodø/Glimt

Consensus Traders

FK Bodø/Glimt 29%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$1.41

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 96.7¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFK Bodø/Glimt at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FK Bodø/Glimt

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lille OSC3%

FK Bodø/Glimt97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FK Bodø/Glimt2 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares11,250

Combined PnL-$36.17

Lille OSC5 traders

Total Value$371.95

Total Shares11,387

Combined PnL+$37.58

FK Bodø/Glimt — 29%Lille OSC — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on FK Bodø/Glimt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFK Bodø/Glimt 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrLille OSC 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Lille OSC 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	FK Bodø/Glimtavg 97¢	$10.9K	$10.9K	-$36.19	53% 2124-1866 (3990)
VE VenusianCTR	Lille OSCavg 3¢	$294.36	$323.8	+$29.44	52% 605-551 (1156)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Lille OSCavg 2.8¢	$30.98	$38	+$7.02	51% 21008-19991 (40999)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	FK Bodø/Glimtavg 96.5¢	$9.65	$9.67	+$0.02	50% 26666-26573 (53239)
NooseracCTR<$100	Lille OSCavg 3¢	$5.78	$6.36	+$0.58	52% 5900-5507 (11407)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Lille OSCavg 2.9¢	$2.61	$2.97	+$0.36	46% 9307-11077 (20384)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Lille OSCavg 2.8¢	$0.98	$0.83	+$0.19	57% 17526-13092 (30618)

0F62

FK Bodø/Glimt

Invested

$10,905.33

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$36.19

Record

53%

2124-1866 (3990)

VenusianCTR

Lille OSC

Invested

$294.36

Value

$323.8

PnL

+$29.44

Record

52%

605-551 (1156)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Lille OSC

Invested

$30.98

Value

$38

PnL

+$7.02

Record

51%

21008-19991 (40999)

GoalLineGhost<$100

FK Bodø/Glimt

Invested

$9.65

Value

$9.67

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

26666-26573 (53239)

NooseracCTR<$100

Lille OSC

Invested

$5.78

Value

$6.36

PnL

+$0.58

Record

52%

5900-5507 (11407)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Lille OSC

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.36

Record

46%

9307-11077 (20384)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Lille OSC

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.83

PnL

+$0.19

Record

57%

17526-13092 (30618)

Research grade

NeutralFK Bodø/Glimt at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

FK Bodø/Glimt

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on FK Bodø/Glimt. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFK Bodø/Glimt 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrLille OSC 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Lille OSC 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FK Bodø/Glimt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.