Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 65¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3

Over65¢Under35¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$59.02

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 64.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares4,953

Combined PnL-$113.41

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,989

Combined PnL+$54.38

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MR MrBently	Overavg 67¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$112.24	53% 570-511 (1081)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 35.8¢	$543.19	$524.72	+$7.99	58% 44584-32454 (77038)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 33¢	$480.15	$523.8	-$7.28	49% 14105-14667 (28772)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 32¢	$207.66	$273.1	+$24.36	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 33¢	$172.22	$187.5	+$12.73	53% 16379-14547 (30926)
SU suntori	Overavg 65.3¢	$151.59	$149.8	-$1.79	45% 13628-16553 (30181)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 33¢	$133.98	$146.16	+$14.21	53% 913-807 (1720)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 35.8¢	$120.78	$117.01	+$0.23	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
BT btmx6<$100	Overavg 65.2¢	$60.43	$59.37	-$0.46	47% 23-26 (49)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 63.5¢	$51.58	$52.38	+$0.8	50% 27272-27188 (54460)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 63¢	$36	$36.28	+$0.29	53% 2336-2055 (4391)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$25.98	$28.34	+$1.97	56% 935-734 (1669)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.83	+$0.02	52% 8449-7707 (16156)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.8	+$0.15	50% 20158-20505 (40663)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$3,008.29

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$112.24

Record

53%

570-511 (1081)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$543.19

Value

$524.72

PnL

+$7.99

Record

58%

44584-32454 (77038)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$480.15

Value

$523.8

PnL

-$7.28

Record

49%

14105-14667 (28772)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$207.66

Value

$273.1

PnL

+$24.36

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$172.22

Value

$187.5

PnL

+$12.73

Record

53%

16379-14547 (30926)

suntori

Over

Invested

$151.59

Value

$149.8

PnL

-$1.79

Record

45%

13628-16553 (30181)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$133.98

Value

$146.16

PnL

+$14.21

Record

53%

913-807 (1720)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$120.78

Value

$117.01

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

btmx6<$100

Over

Invested

$60.43

Value

$59.37

PnL

-$0.46

Record

47%

23-26 (49)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$51.58

Value

$52.38

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

27272-27188 (54460)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$36

Value

$36.28

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.98

Value

$28.34

PnL

+$1.97

Record

56%

935-734 (1669)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

8449-7707 (16156)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

20158-20505 (40663)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.