Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 3 - 3 FC Bayern München?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$2.8K
$2.56
97.9¢ → 99¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$1 | 58% 44610-32488 (77098) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 98.5¢ | $714.36 | $707.24 | -$7.12 | 52% 830-771 (1601) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $710.77 | $701.95 | -$1.66 | 48% 14393-15903 (30296) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 97.9¢ | $127.28 | $126.88 | -$0.4 | 54% 906-787 (1693) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $8.19 | $14.33 | +$6.14 | 53% 59038-51355 (110393) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $11.55 | $12.86 | +$1.31 | 51% 23399-22168 (45567) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $5.29 | $10.58 | +$5.29 | 50% 35607-35082 (70689) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,221
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$1
Record
58%
44610-32488 (77098)
Invested
$714.36
Value
$707.24
PnL
-$7.12
Record
52%
830-771 (1601)
Invested
$710.77
Value
$701.95
PnL
-$1.66
Record
48%
14393-15903 (30296)
Invested
$127.28
Value
$126.88
PnL
-$0.4
Record
54%
906-787 (1693)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$8.19
Value
$14.33
PnL
+$6.14
Record
53%
59038-51355 (110393)
Invested
$11.55
Value
$12.86
PnL
+$1.31
Record
51%
23399-22168 (45567)
Invested
$5.29
Value
$10.58
PnL
+$5.29
Record
50%
35607-35082 (70689)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.