Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 67¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Yes67¢No33¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$43.23

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 66.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 19 top traders (42%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,813

Combined PnL-$22.06

No11 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,175

Combined PnL+$65.29

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

41% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 68¢	$726.24	$715.56	-$5.34	71% 6981-2790 (9771)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 32¢	$524.68	$541.08	+$32.79	50% 35605-35075 (70680)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 32¢	$471.28	$486.5	+$15.23	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 68¢	$486.18	$479.03	-$7.15	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 32¢	$281.76	$290.57	+$4.4	52% 825-766 (1591)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 67.1¢	$174.11	$172.5	-$1.61	50% 20158-20505 (40663)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 66¢	$157.93	$159.13	+$1.2	56% 7597-6087 (13684)
SU suntori	Yesavg 67.9¢	$161.63	$156.02	-$5.61	45% 13628-16553 (30181)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 31.5¢	$126.75	$132.78	+$4.02	53% 16379-14547 (30926)
nigiri99	Yesavg 67.6¢	$128.49	$126.35	-$2.14	46% 8241-9613 (17854)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 32.4¢	$114.18	$116.41	+$2.23	56% 935-734 (1669)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$96.16	$99.17	+$6.01	54% 901-783 (1684)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 66.9¢	$67.44	$65.98	-$1.46	64% 1845-1027 (2872)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 31.7¢	$27.75	$28.44	+$0.69	58% 18577-13713 (32290)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 35.1¢	$7.38	$6.93	-$0.45	53% 913-807 (1720)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$6.06	$6.25	+$0.19	50% 25241-24955 (50196)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$5.92	$6.11	+$0.19	51% 7336-7083 (14419)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$5	$5	+$0	55% 1267-1057 (2324)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Yesavg 65¢	$1.86	$1.91	+$0.06	45% 10626-12799 (23425)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$726.24

Value

$715.56

PnL

-$5.34

Record

71%

6981-2790 (9771)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$524.68

Value

$541.08

PnL

+$32.79

Record

50%

35605-35075 (70680)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$471.28

Value

$486.5

PnL

+$15.23

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$486.18

Value

$479.03

PnL

-$7.15

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$281.76

Value

$290.57

PnL

+$4.4

Record

52%

825-766 (1591)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$174.11

Value

$172.5

PnL

-$1.61

Record

50%

20158-20505 (40663)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$157.93

Value

$159.13

PnL

+$1.2

Record

56%

7597-6087 (13684)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$161.63

Value

$156.02

PnL

-$5.61

Record

45%

13628-16553 (30181)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$126.75

Value

$132.78

PnL

+$4.02

Record

53%

16379-14547 (30926)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$128.49

Value

$126.35

PnL

-$2.14

Record

46%

8241-9613 (17854)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$114.18

Value

$116.41

PnL

+$2.23

Record

56%

935-734 (1669)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$96.16

Value

$99.17

PnL

+$6.01

Record

54%

901-783 (1684)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.44

Value

$65.98

PnL

-$1.46

Record

64%

1845-1027 (2872)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$27.75

Value

$28.44

PnL

+$0.69

Record

58%

18577-13713 (32290)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$7.38

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$0.45

Record

53%

913-807 (1720)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$6.06

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

25241-24955 (50196)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$5.92

Value

$6.11

PnL

+$0.19

Record

51%

7336-7083 (14419)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1267-1057 (2324)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$0.06

Record

45%

10626-12799 (23425)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 19 top traders (42%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

41% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.